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1. Andrew Luck - Colts QB
2. Justin Blackmon - Jaguars WR
3. Trent Richardson - Browns RB
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5. Michael Floyd - Cardinals WR
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15. Lamar Miller - Dolphins RB
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20. Ryan Broyles - Lions WR
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| Nature Of The Beast |
2008 RB Class: The Best Ever?
Two and a half years ago, Arkansas junior Darren McFadden was the lead RB prospect heading into the NFL Draft. His playmaking ability in college was second to none and he was going to be a franchise player, both in the NFL and fantasy leagues alike. He was viewed as a similar threat to Reggie Bush, but as more of a true running back. While Run DMC got most of the headlines, there were other backs right behind him hungry to make a name for themselves. And that they have. To explain how deep this class is, you could argue that Darren McFadden is just now starting to work his way inside the Top 7 RB's to come out in the 2008 NFL Draft. Not only was this RB Class rich with top end prospects, but it was deep with potential. We are going to take a look back at this dynamic class, examining each of the prospects, their current value and future Dynasty upside. In a year or two, it would not be a surprise if 5 or more of these guys was in the Top 10 in scoring at the position, a remarkable feat for a single draft class.
The Beasts
Chris Johnson is the best RB in football. Coming out of East Carolina, he was thought of as a versatile playmaker, but not necessarily a true bellcow back because of his size. Johnson showed flashes through 3 years of college, but broke out as a senior with 24 TD's and almost 3,000 total yards. Then he dropped a record tying 4.24 40 yard dash at the Combine, which got the Hype Train rolling. It hasn't slowed down since. The Titans drafted him in the first round (24th overall) and immediately incorporate the playmaker into a huge part of their offense. Similarly, in Dynasty Drafts, CJ's upside had him as a 1st round selection, however his Average Draft Position within that round fluctuated between the middle and late first. Upside Index: It doesn't get much better than 2009 and it would be a tremendous feat if he could post another season of a similar stat line. Regardless, he is the Number 1 property in a Dynasty league right now and that might not change for a while. Expect regular Beastly seasons of over 1,500 rushing yards and 12-15 TD's.
With an MJD-like skillset, Ray Rice has elevated to one of the premier running backs in the game, and a unanimous Top-10 most valuable properties in Dynasty leagues. Rice was a workhorse at Rutgers, helping to put that program on the map. In three seasons, he scored 50 Total TD's and rushed for almost 5,000 yards. His compact frame (5'8" and 212 lbs.), although thick and powerful, had many viewing him as a complimentary player at the next level. The Ravens drafted Rice in the 2nd round, #55 overall right after drafting potential franchise QB Joe Flacco in the 1st. Similarly, in Dynasty Rookie Drafts, he falling into the late first to early second round. As a rookie, Rice was solid with 454 rushing yards and 33 catches for 273 yards. In 2009, he won the starting RB job and went on to become a true Fantasy Beast with over 2,000 combined yards and 8 TD's. He has been slow out of the gate in 2010 with only 2 TD's and one 100 yard rushing game, although favorable matchups should have his numbers back to Beast level shortly. Upside Index: Rice should remain one of the most coveted Fantasy backs for the foreseeable future. His ability to catch balls out of the backfield has at times overshadowed the fact that he can carry an offense between the tackles, despite the presence of an aging Willis McGahee. Goal line carries will only help to increase his Fantasy stock, making him a regular threat for 1,600+ total yards, 50+ receptions and 10+ TD's a season.
Rashard Mendenhall is finally justifying his collegiate hype as one of the nations top RB's entering the 2009 NFL Draft. After two pedestrian seasons at the University of Illinois, Mendy exploded onto the national scene, watching his draft stock soar to a number 23 overall selection by the Pittsburgh Steelers, an excellent spot for a young RB. He was set up to be their future RB cornerstone and that had him in the Top 5 in just about every Dynasty Rookie Draft. He missed most of his rookie season with a fractured shoulder, but bounced back with a strong sophomore effort and continues to improve in his third season. Upside Index: Mendy might be in the best situation of any RB in this class...a stout defensive unit coupled with an elite QB in a high powered offense that still loves to pound the ball and control the clock. He is already a true RB1 and a workhorse in a world full of committees. He may not have the upside of other RB's in the class, but could end up as the most productive over the scope of his career.
Next up
Jonathan Stewart may have the highest upside of any RB in this class not named Chris Johnson, although the presence of DeAngelo Williams has severly limited his ability to really shine...yet. Stewart, drafted 13th overall after a standout career at Oregon, where he was an instant impact player. In Dynasty Drafts, his upside had him going regularly inside the Top 5, getting as high as the first overall slot in some instances. His blend of power and speed was evident immediately in the NFL, as he has produced 21 TD's and over 2,000 total yards in his first two seasons. And he did that all while sharing carries with DeAngelo Williams, teaming to be the most productive backfield in the league. Expectations for J-Stew were high this season, but until DeAngelo Williams gets traded or injured, it is difficult to treat him as the true RB1 he is.. Upside Index: The Daily Show has an upside of a Top 5 RB highlighted by a predominance for consistent TD's. Though he runs aggressively, his longevity is helped by the fact that he has shared carries for the first three years of his career. Look for him to emerge as a Beast within the next two seasons, however expect a big time roster overhaul in Carolina in the coming season,so expect some volatility in this situation.
Jamaal Charles profiles very similarly to Chris Johnson and his upside is that of a Top 7 RB. The knock on Charles coming out of Texas was that he would not be able to carry the full load in the NFL because of his size and build. A college track star, Charles shows off excellent top end speed to go along with elite elusiveness. He only played three seasons as a Longhorn, but finished 4th on the school's career rushing list, behind only Ricky Williams, Cedric Benson and Earl Campbell. In Dynasty drafts, he was going in the 2nd round with regularity. As a pro, he has not had a YPC under 5.3 in any of his 2 and a half seasons. He is an excellent pass catching back, capable of taking a 5 yard check down to the house. His Dynasty value exploded at the end of last season as Charles took over as the Chief's feature back, but he entered into a timeshare this season with Thomas Jones. That has put a cap on his immediate value and also makes it clear that questions over his ability to be a workhorse still linger. Upside Index: Charles has shown he can be very productive in a timeshare and while that does limit his upside some, it should add a few years to his career and keep him fresh late into his 20's. He should remain a high upside RB2, with possibly a couple seasons of RB1 production.
Darren McFadden was sitting at the top of this star studded class, getting drafted 4th overall by the Raiders. At Arkansas, he was nothing short of electric, rushing for at least 1,100 yards and 11 TD's in each of his three seasons. He was an excellent returner, an apt receiver out of the backfield and even threw 7 TD passes as a Razorback. He was the consensus Number One overall pick in Dynasty leagues. McFadden limped through his first two seasons, totaling under 1,400 combined yards and just 5 TD's. In 2010, he again has battled through injuries, both in training camp and during the season. When healthy, though, he has been one of most productive backs in the NFL. He has finally started to flash is potential. Upside Index: We are seeing what a healthy Darren McFadden is capable of, but his build and running style are always going to make injuries a concern. Because of that question mark, he will never be a reliable RB1, but he can be a very strong RB2 during brief stints between nagging injuries. He will be most effective over the long haul when getting 15 touches per game in a Reggie Bush type role.
As a rookie Matt Forte, took the league by storm, finishing as a Top 5 RB. He struggled as a sophomore, but has rebounded in his third season to again be a productive fantasy player. Forte came into the Draft as somewhat of an unknown prospect from Tulane, but saw his stock soar after the Senior Bowl. He is a versatile back, an excellent receiver out of the backfield, but lacks breakaway speed. He landed in a fertile fantasy ground in Chicago and that landed him in the late first to early second round in Rookie Drafts. He exploded onto the fantasy scene, putting up 12 TD's, over 1,700 yards and 63 catches as a rookie and was tabbed as a steal in most Dynasty drafts. He followed that up with an atrocious sophomore season that saw his production decrease across the board. Upside Index: We have seen the best of what Matt Forte has to offer, and that came as a rookie. He is enjoying a return to fantasy prominence this season, but he is still not a tough between the tackles runner, having never averaged more than 3.9 YPC in a season. His long term value is very much in flux, but for the time being consider him an RB2/3 at best. Utilized as a versatile pass catcher, his value is situated higher for the long term in the RB2 range.
Opportunity (and health) is all they need
Tashard Choice is caught in a numbers game at the moment. Drafted in the fourth round by the Cowboys in 2008, Choice has been behind Marion Barber III and Felix Jones for each of his two professional seasons. Playing his collegiate ball at Georgia Tech, Choice enjoyed very solid junior and senior seasons with 21 TD's and almost 3,000 yards. He led the ACC in rushing, but was not a well-hyped prospect coming into the draft. His eventual upside made him an appealing stash type of prospect, going in the fourth or fifth round in Dynasty Rookie Drafts. Versatility is his calling card and it will eventually lead to more touches for him in Dallas or somewhere else. He does not have any elite quality, but can do everything well evidenced by a high level of production in each of his few career starts. Upside Index: 2011 will be Choice's time to shine, assuming the Cowboys part ways with MBIII. He is never going to be an elite player, but has low-end RB2 upside splitting time with the oft-injured Felix Jones. He could approach between 1,000-1,200 total yards and 6-8 TD's.
Playing in the same collgiate backfield as Darren McFadden, Felix Jones played the Robin role to perfection. He was arguably more explosive than McFadden, but even less of an inside runner. He never received more than 169 touches, but averaged over 7 yards per carry for his 3 year career. Even though he will never be a featured back, Felix Jones playmaking ability was too much for the Cowboys to pass on at No.22 overall. It was also too much for Dynasty owners to pass on, as they grabbed him regularly in the late 1st/early 2nd round of Rookie drafts. He brings huge upside to the table, but has yet to capitalize on it at the NFL league, partly because of nagging injuries. What he will do is bring a ridiculously good YPC and the ability to take any touch to the house. Upside Index: Jones should only be a 12-18 touch player, anything more and he is going to be too injury-prone to hold up for a full season. He gained weight - to handle an additional workload - prior to the start of the 2010 season. He clearly looks to have lost some speed with the added weight. He will likely lose some weight this upcoming offseason and move back into the complimentary role in Dallas. His upside is sky-high, even with limited touches. Seasons of 1,000 total yards and 8+ TD's could be on tap, but expect inconsistencies along the way.
Kevin Smith was looking like an every down back after his rookie season, but a heavy college workload finally caught up with him in 2009. He endured shoulder injuries and was stumbling along, until he tore his ACL in December 2009. Coming out of Central Florida, he was thought of as a solid prospect, one that can be effective between the tackles and as a receiver out of the backfield. He toted the rock an insane 450 times as a junior, piling up over 2,500 yards and 30 total TD's. The Lions drafted him in the 3rd round and he looked like he could be their RB of the future. In a favorable situation, Smith was being drafted in the first round in Dynasty Rookie Drafts. They received instant gratification as he had a solid rookie season before his injury riddled follow-up. While not an exceptional athlete, he possesses enough talent and the work ethic to be a successful NFL back once again. Upside Index: Many Dynasty leaguers have written him off as no more than a handcuff. That is a mistake, and he can work his way back into some form of fantasy relevance. His immediate upside is limited to a low end FLEX play because of the presence of a much more explosive Jahvid Best. The Lions would be smart to utilize Smith as the traditional inside "pound-it-out/goal line" rusher while utilizing Best in a versatile role.
Solid options, long term limitations
Despite coming out of a Cal with a very solid resume and a standout Senior Bowl week, Justin Forsett's size and durability questions held back his draft stock, dropping him to the 7th round. His combination of speed and playmaking ability got him drafted late in Dynasty Rookie Drafts with hopes that he could find work as part of a committee. He is a speedy back with a top notch second gear, but he also runs with power despite his slight build. Last season, he averaged 5.4 yards per carry, caught 41 balls and finished just shy of 1,000 total yards. He'll never be a reliable TD threat, but on a team that believes in his skills, he could help in yardage and catches. Upside Index: He is another RB that will never carry the full load thereby limiting his long term upside. He's a FLEX play for the foreseeable future, but that is not to downplay his ability to contribute to your fantasy team. With consistent touches, 1,000 total yards, 30+ catches and 5+ TD's could be the norm. He will be even more valuable in PPR leagues.
Peyton Hillis was not viewed as much of a running back prospect coming out of college. Maybe that is because he was busy clearing a path for Darren McFadden and Felix Jones to run through as a Razorback. He was pigeon-holed by many as just a full back prospect, one without any RB upside. That was a mistake, as he is very athletic for his size, an excellent receiver out of the backfield and a solid between the tackles pile pusher. In Denver, he showed a glimpse of what his potential was as a rookie - rushing for 5 TD's in a span of four games. In 2009, though, under new Head Coach Josh McDaniels, Hillis was rarely utilized, receiving just 13 carries all season. He was shipped out of town to the Browns and seems to have found a home...as an every down running back. Right now, he is on pace for just over 1,000 yards and over 50 catches, along with double digit TD's. But where does that leave him in the long term? He'll be in the picture, but so will oft-injured but promising rookie Montario Hardesty along with anyone else Mike Holmgren decides to bring into camp next season. Upside Index: Most teams are hesitant to turn over the reigns of an RB job to someone who is traditionally thought of as a FB, but you cannot argue with the results right now. Be careful not to give up too much for Hillis because his Dynasty value is up in the air, but he could continue to be a solid RB2 if he keeps performing in his current role.
Coming out of Richmond, Tim Hightower profiled as a poorman's Marion Barber. He runs with power, has a nose for the endzone and can catch passes out of the backfield. He was enjoyed a nondescript college career until he completely dominated as a senior, to the tune of 23 TD's, over 2,000 total yards and 32 catches. He was drafted in the 5th round in the NFL Draft, but was going as early as the third round in Rookie Drafts because of his landing spot in the Cardinals high powered offense. He made an instant fantasy impact, scoring 10 TD's despite averaging only 2.8 yards per carry. He improved immensely in his second season even while sharing the load with future Beast Beanie Wells, totaling over 1,000 yards, 8 TD's along with 63 catches (which was second among RB's behind Ray Rice). Upside Index: He'll continue to play second fiddle to the more talented Wells, but he is versatile enough to carve out FLEX value on the Cardinals should their offense get on track again. Long term, he is a solid committee back, but will never be elite. He gets a bump in PPR leagues and could continue to improve some as he matures.
Undrafted in 2008 despite setting numerous NCAA records at Chadron State, Danny Woodhead had to wait until this season to make his fantasy presence felt. In college, Woodhead was an undersized monster, setting the all-time collegiate rushing record. That didn't even get him an invite to the Combine. An invite to most Dynasty rosters would be an overstatement. After the Draft, the Jets signed him to a deal and brought him to camp but an unfortunate injury forced him to Injured Reserve. In 2009, he was back with the Jets, but found himself working with the wideouts. He ended up catching 8 passes for 87 yards and rushing for 64 more in limited time last season. Woodhead was the star of the Hardknocks show on HBO that documented the team's 2010 training camp,although he was ultimately waived by the team and immediately signed by the Patriots. He's been a solid bye week starter and should receive about 10 touches per game for the rest of the season. Upside Index: Long term, the Pats have found their RB verison of Wes Welker. His skilled ability to catch passes out of the backfield and run effectively between the tackles may have him suited for 15 touches a game and easily an RB3/Flex option on your Dynasty Roster. He is a Patriots type of player and could continue to blossom in their offense. His upside is limited, but more than useful if you are in a bind. Solid bench prospect.
Benjarvus Green-Ellis is making a name for himself as the lead back in New England this season. Back to back 1,000 yard seasons at Ole Miss was not enough to get him drafted, but he remained a solid long term prospect. He was scooped up by the Patriots after the Draft - a sure fire indication he deserved a speculative pick-up on Dynasty Rosters. He worked his way into 9 games as a rookie, scoring 5 TD's, but faded to the background in 2009 - all of a sudden a Dynasty afterthought. He has re-emerged this season in a big way and is now a sought after property in long term leagues and re-drafts alike. Upside Index: You never know what the Pats are going to do next season, as they could easily bring in another RB through Free Agency or the NFL Draft. While this would deliver a crushing blow to his value, a strong statement to close out the 2010 season could solidify a nice role for the Law Firm moving forward. For now, be cautiously optimistic and consider him an RB3 moving forward. Do not hesitate to deal him though, if you are getting more value than that in return. As the workhorse, he could be looking at 1,000+ yards and 10+ TD's in an up and coming offense.
Mike Shanahan may own Ryan Torain in his Dynasty league. A one cut runner that is ideal in a zone blocking scheme, Torain found himself drafted by the Broncos in the 5th round. A junior college transfer to Arizona State, Torain played two solid seasons in the desert but missed more than half of his senior year with injuries. This is a trend that will continue to hold back Ryan Torain throughout his young career. He received hype after the Draft and was going in the 4th - 5th round of Rookie Drafts. A training camp injury cost him 3 months, but he came back on a mission, rushing for 68 yards and a TD in his first NFL game...before tearing his ACL in the 2nd quarter. Much like Shanaham, Torain was released and out of football in 2009, but later followed his former and current coach to Washington this spring. Due to injuries an and abundance of poor RB talent, Torain again got the call. He has answered with solid production for the Skins through 4 games. If he can stay injury-free, he should see 15-25 touches a game from here on out. Upside Index: Torain's upside is clouded by nagging injuries. To rely on him would be a mistake, but his ground and pound game will keep him RB3 productive when healthy. Don't bet on him being the featured back in Washington next season, but he'll be in the mix. Long term, he is a journeyman and not a true franchise player but could carve out a couple Ryan Grant type seasons if he can stay out of the trainers room.
Michigan's all time leading rusher was thought to be too small to make a large impact in the NFL. Mike Hart is ready to prove teams wrong. The Colts hope so too, after drafting Hart in the 6th round in 2008. That got him added in the late rounds of Rookie Drafts as a potential Joseph Addai handcuff. He has seen limited work in his first two seasons, but a series of injuries to Donald Brown and Joseph Addai have him as part of the 2010 gameplan. He has received double digit carries in each of the past three games, producing solid results. Injuries have hampered him in each of his seasons and he should never be relied upon as more than a 10-15 touch player. Upside Index: If Joseph Addai leaves town as a free agent this summer, Mike Hart could have a chance to carve out some fantasy value. He has thus far outplayed the more hyped Donald Brown and some type of committee approach is possible. He'll never be much more than bench depth, but do not discount his value as such. Capable of a big play and a reliable receiver, the Colts could find a way to make him fantasy relevant.
Don't forget...
Steve Slaton was an explosive player at West Virginia, but a down junior season hurt his draft stock. Still, having scored no fewer than 18 TD's in each collegiate season, Slaton was a special talent that could be a fantasy star in the right situation. That situation was in Houston, where he was selected in the 3rd round, hungry for a featured back to headline their high powered offense. He may have had the biggest instant impact of any rookie outside of Matt Forte. Slaton was viewed as a change of pace prospect coming into the NFL, but in 2008, he changed people's thinking with 10 TD's, 50 catches and over 1,600 total yards. Injuries set in early 2009 and he quickly fell out of favor with the Texans. Undrafted 2009 rookie Arian Foster was worked into the gameplan and they drafted Auburn prospect Ben Tate in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft this past April. Tate is on IR in 2010, but Foster has taken the starting job and not looked back. Slaton is a non-factor. Upside Index: Anyone's guess at this point. He is clearly not part of Houston's plans, but could resurface as a change of pace runner in a different uniform. He could be a PPR asset, but his Dynasty value at this point is off the radar. You could do worse with a speculative pick-up, as he could find a happy medium between his outstanding production in 2008 and his forgettable 2009.
Jalen Parmele was a little-known RB prospect coming out of Toledo, but a solid Combine performance got him drafted in the 6th round by the Dolphins. He was signed off their practice squad by the Ravens in December of 2008, playing sparingly since then. He has a solid size and speed combination, but lacks long speed and pass catching ability. Right now he is buried on the depth chart behind Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and fullback Le'Ron McClain. With McGahee's time with the Ravens just about up, Parmele has a real shot in 2011 to get on the radar. Upside Index: Long term, Parmele could become fantasy relevant if he can make it as Rice's back-up. He'd be a solid handcuff and has a skill set that makes him a rosterable prospect in deep leagues because of his potential.