The key to success in fantasy football, especially within dynasty formats, is to constructively analyze perennial patterns of players and their respective franchises.  The existing free agent structure (salary caps, complicated contracts, franchise tagging, etc.) of the NFL is formed in such a way that allows any team to be competitive in any given season.  The discerning fantasy owner monitors these patterns with hopes of finding fantasy success from year to year.  Other than the obvious beasts that you cradle like children, the goal is to find the emerging talent taking advantage of their current situation.  Ride these players while their value is high, than move them for elite talent.

NFC EAST  

New York Giants – Reallistically not the offensive powerhouse they should be.

Fantasy Weaponry – QB, Eli Manning, RB Brandon Jacobs, Defense

Fantasy Depth Chart – WR Domenik Hixon, RB Ahmad Bradshaw

Emerging Talent – WR Steve Smith, WR Mario Manningham, WR Sinorice Moss, TE Kevin Boss

Needs – RB Depth in the draft, Existing WR’s to step up, WR Depth in the draft.

2008 was a weird season for Big Blue.  A preseason loss of DE Osi Umenyora and a bullet wound to star receiver Plaxico Burress, proved to be too distracting to repeat in 09.  Plaxico has been released and the entire offense could struggle as a result.  The Giants are a run first team (T-21 in the league in pass attempts in 2008) that don't currently have a WR that can effectivley stetch the field.  Brandon Jacobs is a beast and expect to see increased carries (and injury risk).  Ahmad Bradshaw’s value increases with the loss of Derrick Ward.  Core WR’s Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress are gone for ‘09, leaving the door open for any of the teams emerging WR’s to step up.  It’s a make or break year for WR Sinorice Moss.  Pass catching TE Kevin Boss could also take advantage of the situation.  The O and D-Lines are still quite stout and the loss of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to the Rams will not change the face of this Defense.

 

Philadelphia Eagles – Can’t quite make it to the big game

Fantasy Weaponry – QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook

Fantasy Depth Chart – WR Kevin Curtis, WR DeSean Jackson

Emerging Talent – TE Brent Celek, WR Jason Avant

Needs – Desperate need at the RB position, End Zone threat WR, Addition of a blocking TE improves the value at the RB position.

The 2008 Eagles played in their 5th NFC Championship game in the last decade.  This type of success is rare and also very frustrating for Eagle fans, however a testament to the strength of the franchise.  McNabb is a stud in this offense and is only 32.  Westbrook is approaching 30 and quickly breaking down.  Look for the Eagles to add RB talent early in the draft.  Don’t look for the Eagles to reach for WR talent, but would love to add that tall red zone threat they have desperately been trying to make a franchise player for the past 10 years.  They will remain a pass first football team and the RB they draft early in 2009 will suit these characteristics. 

Washington Redskins – Finally some consistency in D.C.?

Fantasy Weaponry – RB Clinton Portis, TE Chris Cooley

Fantasy Depth Chart – QB Jason Campbell, WR Santana Moss

Emerging Talent – WR Devin Thomas, WR Malcolm Kelly

Needs – Youthful RB, Stud WR

It seems as though the Skins will break from their seasonal tradition of head coaching changes and stick with Jim Zorn.  QB Jason Campbell will finally experience some consistency and should continue to improve.  Rumors in DC indicate 2009 could be a beast or bust season for Campbell however.  Pay close attention to how the Skins handle their backup QB situation in the offseason and draft.  Clinton Portis will be 28 at the start of the ‘09 campaign and his is clearly starting to show signs of wear.  Look for his production steadily decrease (following his typical highly productive start).  WR’s Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly will need to step up next season to prove they have value for the future.

 

Dallas Cowboys – Money cannot buy success in the NFL.

Fantasy Weaponry – QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten

Fantasy Depth Chart – WR Roy E. Williams

Emerging Talent – RB Felix Jones, RB Tashard Choice

Needs – Resolve within the organization (team chemistry).  WR Depth 

The Dallas Cowboys are a perfect example of the NFL and the necessity of a team oriented atmosphere.  The Cowboys are loaded with offensive talent but clearly don’t have the foundation in place to put it all together.  If this team can work out it’s differences, watch out!  Look for the running game to implement a three-headed monster running attack in 2009.  This hurts the value if MBIII whose productivity dropped off significantly (from 4.8 to 3.7) in 2008, while increasing the value of Felix Jones and Tashard Choice.  Now that TO is out of the picture, look for Roy E. Williams to see more double coverage.  The opportunity for a #2 WR to step up and produce is at hand.  Keep tabs on Isaiah Stanback and Miles Austin, both of which the Cowboys claim to be high on.  The Cowboys do not have a 1^st round draft pick.


NFC NORTH

Detroit Lions – Rebuilding since 1957.

Fantasy Weaponry – WR Calvin Johnson,

Fantasy Depth Chart – None

Emerging Talent – RB Kevin Smith

Needs – Franchise QB, Pass Catching TE, Depth at the WR position to compete with Bryant Johnson for the #2, Capable RB to lighten the load for Kevin Smith.  Glaring needs on Defense.

First things first.  If the lions draft Michael Crabtree as the #1 overall player selected in the 2009 draft, they may never win again in Detroit.  The needs are evident and if they find themselves a QB, they must be sure to protect him.  If they make wise decisions in the upcoming draft, their trade of Roy E. Williams to Dallas could prove lucrative.  QB Dante Culpepper is obviously not the answer, but will provide a 1-2 season buffer for a drafted QB to develop.  Pay attention to RB’s drafted.  Kevin Smith has a lot of collegiate carries under his belt.  We would like to see them take an O-Tackle at the #1 overall then hope Sanchez or Freeman fall to them at #20.  The Lions are intent on changing the face of this franchise.  New Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan (former Head Coach of the Rams) will build a physical, hard-nosed rushing attack behind Kevin Smith.  New Head Coach Jim Schwartz (former Defensive Coach of the Titans) will bring some fire to the worst Defense in 2008.

 

Chicago Bears – A franchise Quarterback in Chicago, say it ain't so?

Fantasy Weaponry – QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte

Fantasy Depth Chart – None

Emerging Talent – WR Devin Hester, TE Greg Olsen, WR Earl Bennett

Fantasy Future – A big-body WR,  Speed WR with some size, Change of Pace RB, Defensive Upgrades

The Bears ended the Jay Culter Drama by shipping Kyle Orton and a plethora of 09-10 draft picks to Denver. The Bears still lack a true #1 WR however expect them to attempt to fill the void in this years draft.  The value of WR Hester and TE Olsen benefit most from this upgrade as their two best current pass catching options.  Culters current dynasty value has taken a hit, but with the addition of weapons he will remain a top 7 fantasy QB.   

 

Green Bay Packers – Green Bay is an Aaron Rodgers town.

Fantasy Weaponry – QB Aaron Rogers, WR Greg Jennings

Fantasy Depth Chart – RB Ryan Grant, WR Donald Driver

Emerging Talent – WR Jordy Nelson, TE Jeremichael Finely

Fantasy Future - WR Depth, Change of Pace RB.

The Packers (1 season removed from a single bad throw keeping them from the Superbowl) seem like a franchise in disarray at this point.  Dom Capers defensive staff will utilize a 3-4 Defense strategy and will occupy much of their offseason acquisitions, especially within the early rounds of the draft.  Aaron Rogers will continue to grow into an elite talent in the NFL.  We expect Jeremichael Finley to pass Donald Lee on the depth chart.  Donald Driver, one of the most consistent WR to ever play in the NFL is getting old.  Expect him to lose a step in the coming season.  Expect Jordy Nelson to emerge as a reliable 70 reception 6 TD target.  

Minnesota Vikings – Hungry for StarCaps

Fantasy Weaponry – RB Adrian Peterson

Fantasy Depth Chart – WR Bernard Berrian, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, RB Chester Taylor

Emerging Talent – QB Tarvaris Jackson, QB Sage Rosenfels, WR Sidney Rice, WR Aundrae Allison,

Pressing Needs – QB Stability, #1 WR

With the addition of a stable QB, the Vikings have the pieces in place to go from the team you worry about playing on a weekly basis, to the team you worry about playing in the Superbowl.  The Vikings strong push to acquire WR TJ Houshmenzedah indicates they are still looking to solidify the WR position.  WR Sidney Rice is a threatening end zone presence however his durability is a concern.  Rosenfels is not the long-term answer, but he does possess the ability to get the ball downfield and a QB competition between he and Jackson will be good for both players.  This is the recipe for Peterson, who is used to running against a stacked box, to start approaching 2000 yard seasons.   

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons - Love Me Some Matty Ice!

Fantasy Weaponry – QB Matty Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White

Fantasy Depth Chart – RB Jerious Norwood

Emerging Talent – WR Harry Douglas, WR Michael Jenkins

Needs – Offensive Line Depth, Defense, Pass catching TE

What a rookie season for Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons!  This was a team built from the bottom under the skilled eye of rookie Head Coach Mike Smith.  This is a young team that should continue to produce huge fantasy numbers at each skill position.  Look for Mike Turner to carry the ball approximately 370 times and Norwood to reap the change of pace benefits.   Keep in mind that a healthy Sam Baker (back injury in 2008) will only improve the run and pass blocking consistency.  Roddy White is in a contract year, which equals career production.  We expect this balanced attack to quickly move Matt Ryan into top 5 QB status.  

Carolina Panthers - And the scary part is, Deangelo Williams isn’t even the most talented RB on the team

Fantasy Weaponry – RB Deangelo Williams, WR Steve Smith

Fantasy Depth Chart – QB Jake Delhomme, RB Jonathon Stewart

Emerging Talent – None

Needs – QB to groom over the next two seasons, WR Depth.

The major question for this team is who is the QB of the future.  Jake Delhomme is too streaky to be counted on and the organization is not sold on either Josh McCown or Matt Moore as THE answer.  Jon Stewart has top 5 RB talent that will eventually limit  DeAngelo Williams upside in Carolina. Dwayne Jarrett has not stepped up as the Panthers thought and DJ Hackett was a free agent bust. This is an ideal situation for a young WR and young QB. The Panthers do not have a 1st round draft pick.

New Orleans Saints – Fantasy Jackpot!

Fantasy Weaponry – QB Drew Brees, WR Marques Colston

Fantasy Depth Chart – WR Lance Moore, RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey

Emerging Talent – RB Pierre Thomas

Needs – Between the tackles, Power RB, A Defense, Kicker (yeah, I said it, a Kicker)

The New Orleans Saints are a prime example of how different reality football and fantasy football are.  Loaded with stud fantasy performers, Sean Payton and his high octane  offense repeatedly contribute to fantasy championship teams from year to year.  A few items to pay attention to: 1) Sean Payton didn’t mention PT’s name at this years combine when discussing the teams current RB position.  2) What will the similar running styles of Bush and Thomas do to their respective fantasy values?  3) Can WR Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey stay healthy for an entire season?  4) Lance Moore is a good NFL player, but someone to consider moving while his value is high. 5) Drew Brees is obviously a beast, while the remaining fantasy studs on this team can sometimes be frustrating to own when competing for the football.

Tampa Bay Bucanneers – Cleanup on aisle 3

Fantasy Weaponry – TE Kellen Winslow.

Fantasy Depth Chart – QB Byron Leftwich, RB Derrick Ward, RB Earnest Graham, WR Antonio Bryant.

Emerging Talent – QB Josh Johnson, QB Luke McCown

Needs – A franchise QB, Youthful RB, Impact slot WR.  

Tampa Bay is currently a fantasy wasteland.  No established QB, aging RB’s in Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham, and one hit wonder WR Antonio Bryant characterize the fantasy depth chart.  With lots of cap space there is room for improvement however.  Who will emerge as this teams starting QB?  Pay close attention to the development of QB Josh Johnson.  The signing of Derrick Ward who is well suited to the new Offensive Coordinator Jeff Jagozinski’s one cut zone blocking scheme will hurt Grahams value.  Without another viable WR, Kellen Winslows value takes a hit when he see's double coverage all season.  It will be interesting to see how new Head Coach Raheem Morris straightens out the QB debacle left by former Head Coach John Gruden. 

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals – First off, Kurt Warner would like to thank Jesus.

Fantasy Weaponry – QB Kurt Warner, WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Anquan Boldin,

Fantasy Depth Chart – WR Steve Breaston

Emerging Talent – RB Tim Hightower, QB Matt Leinart

Needs – Tailback replacement for Edgerrin James.

Lots of questions surround the 2008 NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals.  Is Matt Leinart going to be a legit NFL Starter?  How much longer will Anquan Bolin remain in Phoenix? Is Tim Hightower the power runner (Marion Barber type) many think he will be?  Is Steve Breaston any good without Fitz and Boldin stealing coverage?  The Cards are still very high on Matt Leinart although he has yet to show he can cut it at the next level.  

Seattle Seahawks – Will Hassleback’s back allow him to bounce back?

Fantasy Weaponry – None

Fantasy Depth Chart – QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR TJ Houshmenzadeh, RB Julius Jones, WR Nate Burleson

Emerging Talent - TE John Carlson

Needs – RB, Developmental QB.

Expect Greg Knapp to stay consistent with previous experience and rebuild the Hawks offense into a perennial top 10 rushing offenses.  Expect the Seahawks to implement a more prevalent rushing attack in 2009.   Can Julius Jones carry the load?  Probably not and it would be wise for Seattle to take a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round of the draft.  Look for the Seahawks to draft a potential franchise QB this year. 

 

San Francisco 49ers – Can’t play with them, can’t win with them. Yet.

Fantasy Weaponry – RB Frank Gore

Fantasy Depth Chart – QB Shaun Hill

Emerging Talent – WR Josh Morgan, QB Alex Smith, WR Jason Hill

Needs – QB Stability, Committee RB partner to Frank Gore

Mike Singletary brings an old school tough nosed football mentality to the city of San Francisco this upcoming season.  Tough defense and a grind-it-out running attack should define this team that currently is without an identity.  Questions at the QB position remain.  While Shaun Hill is a serviceable QB, the 2005 #1 overall pick QB Alex Smith has yet to prove his value.  Emerging star WR Josh Morgan has an opportunity to thrive if he takes advantage of the situation. This situation is a perfect landing spot for one of the top 3 early entrant QB’s to learn and eventually take over in a year or two.  The addition of a between the Tackles RB will lighten the load for Gore which will allow him to work more where he is suited, in the open field.

St. Louis Rams – The Steven Jackson Show featuring a bunch of players you don’t know.

Fantasy Weaponry – RB Steven Jackson

Fantasy Depth Chart – QB Marc Bulger

Emerging Talent - WR Donnie Avery

Needs – QB depth, WR depth, 10-15 carry RB.

This Rams will have an NFC East look, similar to the Eagles, which utilize a tough defense, a power running game and plenty of passing.  The addition of Head Coach Steve Spagnulo (former NYG Defensive Coordinator) and Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur (formerly of the Eagles) should reap huge benefits for Bulger, Jackson and Avery.  Kenneth Darby emerged as a decent handcuff for SJax, but he’ll have competition from Brian Leonard and Antonio Pittman. If they can bolster the offensive line and keep Marc Bulger upright, he can thrive in this offense.  Don’t be surprised for the Rams to add a QB in the draft.  Look for them to bolster their O-Line at the #2 overall and a tall WR at the top of the 2nd.  Pay close attention to how the team adjusts to running a west coast offense.