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 Needs Not Wants
Posted by BeastOrBust on Thursday, Dec 23 2010  -  about 1 year ago
::  Back to Featured Columns  ::  Needs Not Wants Archive
2011 Fantasy Outlook
Like most every fantasy season, 2010 gave us a number of breakout performances and seemingly out of nowhere players that became Beasts. But did they all really come from out of the blue? No, but most of the Peyton Hillis and Brandon Lloyd types were re-draft afterthoughts and at best, Dynasty stash and pray pick-ups. At BeastOrBust.com, we want to help you identify potential Beasts before everyone else does. In this article, we are going to take a look at two types of players - First, the deep Dynasty prospect that could get a chance to shine if given the opportunity. And second, the player on the verge of becoming a Beast that you'll be able to rely on for years to come. Let's take a look at some of the prospects we have our eye on for 2011.

Quarterbacks


Sam Bradford
is a Beast!  Look for the emerging Rams to start building around their franchise stud.  He has performed nicely in his rookie season without a big name receiving option.  Watch his stock steadily rise over the next two seasons.  Use Bradford's late season dip in production as a last chance opportunity to add him to your roster.  He is worth overpaying for as well.

Joe Flacco continues to get better each season. He has shown potential since he came into the NFL and his measurables are that of an elite fantasy QB. Now with some legit weapons at WR and a playmaking safety valve in Ray Rice, Flacco has already enjoyed the best season of his career and added consistency to his reportoire. He is flashing top 5 potential and could get there in 2011. This is the last time you might be able to buy in on the Uni-bomber at a discounted price tag.

Josh Freeman is one of our favorite young QB prospects.  He has the "it" factor with all the intangibles wrapped up into one solid Dynasty package.  For those lucky enough to own Freeman, he can be counted on for a decade plus of big time fantasy production.  The Bucs. knew what they had very early on and clearly made a push to surround him with legit receiving weapons and a bruising back to support the offense.  This is a squad that is going to become quite dangerous and Freeman is the backbone. 

Kevin Kolb
is in a tough spot.  He has the skill set to be a legit QB, but with Vick-tastic at the helm in Philly he's not gonna get a chance.  Vick will be a free agent, so Kolb owners should be desperately hoping that the Eagles will decide to not match the big time payday Vick will earn this offseason.  Kolb is currently a more valuable Dynasty asset than what you will pay as fair market value and the uncertainty of how the Eagles will handle Vick this offseason drives the price down further.  He is worth targeting as a depth player with solid upside.  Vick owners should be heavily targeting Kolb as well.

Colt McCoy may never be a fantasy Beast, but he will have value in Dynasty leagues. He has been, for the most part, impressive in his 7 games played this year. Surrounded by up and coming talent and possibly another top flight WR prospect through the NFL Draft this April, McCoy could develop into a solid QB2 in time. He's flying under the radar because of his limited upside and physical shortcomings, but he's worth paying more than his current market value in a QB heavy league.

John Skelton has the biggest arm in the NFL.  He is a raw product, but considering the fact he is situated adjacent Derek Anderson and Max Hall on the Cardinals QB depth chart, he has a chance to establish a role for himself in 2010.  The Cardinals are another team that may look to bring in a veteran QB to help bridge the gap before a younger player establishes himself.  Right now, Skelton is definitely the most likely to succeed of the current QB's on the roster.

Tim Tebow was one of the most controversial draft prospects in recent memory and now he is going to be one of the most controversial Dynasty prospects as well. He still clearly has a ways to go development-wise, but the skills are there for him to be a dependable fantasy QB. Despite mixed feelings and mixed results thus far, Tebow's value is already higher than his worth because of his name. If you can get him for what seems like fair market value, pull the trigger. You will never see another player work as hard for your Dynasty team.

The Minnesota Vikings will be searching for a QB.  Brett Favre has to be done at this point...one would think.  The Vikes really like Joe Webb, and in limited action he has shown youthful highs and lows.  Similar to what they did with Favre, the Vikings may decide to bring in a veteran QB to bridge the gap between their QB of the future, say a Marc Bulger type.  This is a situation to monitor closely with so much young talent on the roster.  The eventual starter will be in a great situation.


Running Backs

Despite an early season burst on to the scene, Jahvid Best spent most of the season hampered by turf toe.  His early season success was enough to keep his value somewhat elevated, however Best's market value is currently somewhat lower than his overall upside.  His situation is solid as well, with an emerging Lions squad that will balance their attack upon the return of Matt Stafford in 2011.  Take a chance here on a player that is easily one of the most explosive RB's in the game.

LeGarrette Blount is very MACK Truck like.  He averaged over 4.5 ypc this season, on a team that is only in the early stage of offensive Beastlyness (see Josh Freeman).  A nice situation for a powerful inside rusher.  He has shown ridiculous athleticism this season hurdling all 240 lbs of himself over defenders, while also showing a nose for the end zone.

Tashard Choice has been waiting for three seasons to get his chance in Dallas.  In limited action he has produced RB1 numbers (most noteably 100+ yard games as a starter vs. the Steelers and Ravens in 2009) in each opportunity to start.  Marion Barber III is clearly falling off and Felix Jones is still Jerry Jone's love child.  Choice will likely share the Cowboys backfield in 2011 with Jones.  Jones remains injury prone and not an option on the goal line, so Choice will see a bump in value this offseason. 

Mike Goodson has a great opportunity in 2011 to emerge onto the scene.  The always strong Panthers run game will remain a focal point of a Carolina rebuild.  DeAngelo Williams will likely be franchise tagged and set up for an offseason trade.  This give Goodson an excellent opportunity to be an excellent backfield tandem with J. Stewart.  Stash him now on the cheap while D. Will remains in the picture.

Shonn Greene
was supposed to breakout in 2010, with many re-draft experts drafting him in the 2nd round this summer. There is a lot to like about Greene as a prospect, he can put up yards in a hurry and shows more game speed than you would think for an RB his size. LT2 has worn down as the season went on this year and it would be a huge surprise if he was even close to as effective in 2011. Greene has his opportunity and could become a Michael Turner-type with 2-3 seasons of big yardage and TD numbers.

Peyton Hillis broke through this year in a big way, but don't forget about Montario Hardesty, the Browns 2nd round pick in 2010. He has legit talent, but more injury issues than a young Fred Taylor. If he can get healthy by this summer, he could work his way into a rotation with the more physical Hillis. Stash and hope he can stay out of the trainers room. Not likely, but worth a small investment.

Ryan Mathews had what can be considered a disappointing rookie season.  Missing a few games to injury, and never carrying the rock more than 19 times in a game is concerning.  Mathews did however manage to rush for 4.2 a pop and show nice ability as a receiver out of the backfield.  Mathews is a feature player in the Chargers backfield.  The Bolts will chuck the ball often as well, so teams will be forced to respect the pass on most downs.  While we are not yet convinced that Mathews is as good as advertised, he is a solid player in a great situation.  At the very least he is a strong RB2 heading into 2011 and his current value is quite low.  A nice add to your roster should the value be right.

We thought it would happen this season, but Dynasty owners are going to have to wait until next season to see Bernard Scott become a fantasy factor. Whether or not Cedric Benson returns, Scott has shown very capable of producing when he is on the field. Although he'll be 27 years old entering next season, Scott has upside, he just needs more touches. He could be a FLEX asset next season with potential for much more. He'll never be a bell cow, but with 200+ touches, he could be a very poor person's Jamaal Charles for a few seasons.

If Hillis broke out in a big way, Arian Foster exploded onto the fantasy scene in 2010. Similar to Hardesty, also don't forget about Ben Tate. He could be a valuable handcuff next season and if he shows the talent that made him a 2nd round draft pick last April, he could end up being a valuable trade chip for your Dynasty team and the Houston Texans. Now is the time to take a flier on Tate's skillset.

Beanie Wells is still the same player he was to close out the 2009 season.  A preseason knee injury basically destroyed his 2010 campaign.  A deteriorating Arizona offense didn't help either.  Wells has an impressive skill set and his ability to catch the football is underrated as well.  For those that are willing to be patient, they have Top-10 talent on their hands.  Wells can be had on the cheap right now.  Go get him at a very reduced rate.


Wide Receivers

Anthony Armstrong is one of the few bright spots for the Washington Redskins offensive unit.  Armstrong has spent his "rookie" season quietly catching 3-4 catches per game and has shown steady improvement despite the terrible QB situation.  Keep in mind that Armstrong is already 27 years old and has very likely hit his physical peak, but he could be a solid FLEX option for the next couple years. With Santana Moss aging, look for the fresh legged Armstrong to take a stronghold of the Moss niche.

Arrelious Benn was drafted a few rounds earlier than Mike Williams last season, but it was Williams that broke out onto the scene first.  Benn was given a more difficult task of learning the flanker position in his rookie year which limited his productivity.  While Benn's production has been limited to about 1-2 catches per week for most of the year, he has come on late with an increase in targets and improved route running ability.  A late season ACL injury limits his chances for a 2011 breakout, but he is still a prospect to monitor and even roll the dice on. At 6-2 and 220 lbs. Benn has breakout skills if he can bounce back healthy.

Could Earl Bennett finally be emerging?  In an offense conducive to highly productive receivers, Bennett lined up opposite the explosive Johnny Knox to form a nice receiving duo in the coming seasons.  Cutler has clearly taken a liking to Bennett although his numbers remain somewhat undervalued.  Should the Bears not target a WR early in the 2011 NFL Draft, it means they are higher on Bennett than most of us realize. Target him on the cheap this offseason. As for Knox, he could emerge as a potential Beast with a little more seasoning and attention in the redzone. His yards per catch jumped an impressive 7.1 from his rookie season and continued development could lead to a big breakthrough in 2011.

Kenny Britt has progressed more in 2010 than his numbers let on. Because of a hamstring injury that cost him 4 games, Britt can still be had a decent Dynasty price tag, but he might be one of the 10 best WR's in the game by the time next season is over. If he can get past his immaturity off the field, expect a big emergence on it for this game-changing talent.

Dez Bryant
should emerge into a Top-7 WR option by the end of 2011 (he is already ranked in our Top-5 WR Dynasty Rankings).  In a high powered offense that won't hesitate to over-utilize their emerging weapon.  The presence of stud Miles Austin will not limit Bryant's ability to post huge numbers for a very long time.  Austin is good, but Bryant is really good.  These two are going to form one of the most feared WR duos in the NFL.

Michael Crabtree has been slow to develop.  The QB situation in SF has not helped the situation, but in his second season he hasn't shown himself to be the breakout player he is supposed to be.  Be patient here.  He is hugely talented and despite a slight regression in yardage totals, his increase in TD's are promising.  Dynasty owners are surely frustrated with Crabs at this point.  Time to take advantage.

Dorin Dickerson has only one target this season (a potential TD that he couldn't pull in last week), but keep an eye on him next summer. If Jacoby Jones departs for a large payday, there will be opportunity for the converted TE to work his way into the WR rotation. Talent-wise, he has the potential to eventually be the WR2 opposite Andre Johnson, but he still needs to develop and mature as a receiver. Excellent stash potential, but be aware that if Jacoby Jones departs via free agency, Dickerson's name could start getting sleeper hype immediately.

In 2010, Larry Fitzgerald became the youngest player to reach 600 catches.  Fitz is still the NFL's top WR and is entering his prime at only 27 years old.  He has become vocal this season as the Cardinals organization has crumbled.  Some offseason drama may arise, but this stud will play and be hugely productive anywhere so remain patient.  If you have a chance to land this player who many fantasy players mistakenly feel has "fallen-off" make a move immediately before too many offseason changes occur in AZ.

The Panthers organization will likely do an entire overhaul this offseason.  David Gettis is a player they will looking to establish a wide receiving corps around.  An aging Steve Smith, means it's time for a younger player to step up.  Gettis has been a consistent 2-3 catch player every week on the worst team in the league in 2010.  Stash this former track star who stands at 6'-4" at very little cost for what stands to be potentially a solid return on investment.

Brian Hartline was starting to emerge before a finger injury ended his season prematurely. He is the Dolphins best option to stretch the field and was consistently getting 3-5 catches a game this season. He showed solid rapport with Chad Henne and along with Brandon Marshall and PPR asset Davone Bess, could form an underrated WR corp. Hartline has limited upside, but makes for a nice FLEX player next season.

The Raiders WR corp. is a talented, youthful bunch. Darrius Heyward-Bey has been slow to develop, but he did make some strides in 2010. He is still raw and makes rookie mistakes and that should continue in 2011. A step forward, though, could put DHB back on the map. Keep him stashed for now. Jacoby Ford burst onto the scene with exciting plays, flashing gamebreaking speed. He'll likely never be a reliable fantasy option, but his upside makes him a valuable prospect to have on your roster. Then there is Louis Murphy, who continues to fly under the radar. He has the size and speed to be a solid WR3 for your fantasy team if he can continue to develop. He needs consistency, which could come with steady QB play. He also needs to become a redzone asset to reach his full potential. Scoop him up on the cheap this season if his current owner does not hold him in high regard.

Stevie Johnson will enter his fourth season in 2011 coming off a breakout year recording approximately 80 catches, over 1000 yards and double digit TD's.  These numbers all came on a Bills team that didn't win many games.  While his end of season production was impressive, he still does not have us convinced he will emerge into an elite receiver.  Johnson is a player that is currently a solid Dynasty hold or sell candidate.  He's a young player that has clearly emerged, and if your team in WR starved, he is a nice player to keep rostered as his numbers will likely remain consistent in coming seasons with his 2010 production.  On the other hand, Johnson's value is currently skyrocketing with the argument he is one of the leagues most targeted receivers, has a QB that he clearly has chemistry with and on a roster that is only going to improve in the coming seasons. 

Much like Dickerson, Carlton Mitchell has not caught a pass in 2010, but represents upside in 2011 and beyond. A raw but talented prospect that was nabbed in the sixth round by the Browns, Mitchell needs to hone his skills to become a fantasy factor. He'll have to show massive improvement to be on the radar next season, but why risk it? Acquire him now for what amounts to a throw-in, and be patient.

Hakeem Nicks will have something to say for top WR in the NFC East.  He's a big time playmaker and easily the top weapon for Eli Manning, however he has shown a propensity to miss some time due to injury.  A full season without injury and he cements well-deserved Top-5 WR status.  Eli Manning is moving into 30 TD range and Nicks is going to catch nearly half of them for a nice long career in NYC.

There is a lot of clutter right now in the Patriots receiver corp. Obviously Wes Welker is the focal point, Julian Edelman is his understudy and Brandon Tate is the up and coming playmaker, but where does that leave Taylor Price, the Pats third round pick last year? Under the radar and hopefully on your Dynasty roster. Price has a nice size/speed combination to make an impact down the road and the fact that no one is even thinking about him right now, makes him a great flier.

While his numbers aren't overly impressive, rookie WR Emmanuel Sanders has had a solid second half of a rookie season.  It is clear that Hines Ward is on the downward slope of his career as he has posted career low numbers in 2010.  He will be 35 next season.  Time for youthful talent to step in, and it looks as though Sanders will be that guy.  Mike Wallace is the elite deep threat guy while Sanders could emerge as a high reception player over the middle.  Add 7-10 TD's as a reliable receiving option for Big Ben and a solid WR2 in Sanders will round out a dangerous receiving corps for the Steelers.


Tight Ends

Jared Cook is coming on strong to end the 2010 season. He was raw coming out of South Carolina, but showed top flight pass catching ability at the tight end position. Finally getting onto the field regularly, he has been a dangerous weapon for Kerry Collins. Look for the momentum to continue next season, as the Titans opponents focus on Kenny Britt, leaving Cook to do damage on intermediate routes. HIs value is closely tied to the Tennnessee QB situation, but he is a TE2 with upside as it stands right now.

Jimmy Graham is still learning to play the game of football.  A hugely talented/athletic player has had a solid close to 2010, an indication his time spent with Drew Brees is paying off.  Graham is a former basketball with only 1 season of collegiate football experience.  As he develops, so will his fantasy production and the potential in limitless in the Saints high-powered offense.  Acquire Graham this offseason before he gets on every Dynasty owners radar by mid season 2011.

The Bengals are going through a transitional phase, but when the dust settles, it will be an offense that runs through a game-changing tight end. Jermaine Gresham has the physical ability to be a Top 3 TE as soon as 2012. He should mature on the field in a big way in 2011, but expect some inconsistency as the Bengals work through their growing pains. Grab him now while the price tag is manageable.

Brandon Pettigrew is becoming a serious fantasy player.  Wait until Matt Stafford returns to action, because things could get even better.  The combination of Megatron and Pettigrew are going to give defenses fits in the future.  Pettigrew's 2010 production is a glimpse of his upside which includes a bump in TD numbers.  His value has risen some in 2010, so he cannot be stolen from Dynasty owners but now is the time to make a move if you are in need of youthful Dynasty TE talent.


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