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 Freshman 15
Posted by BeastOrBust on Wednesday, Aug 17 2011  -  about 9 months ago
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2011 Rookie Progress Update
The 2011 NFL Rookie Class has the odds stacked against them.  With very little time to transition into an NFL professional, we can expect the learning curve to be more than most of these players can adjust to in the earliest stages of their career.  The Hype Train doesn't slow down however, so we are here to make sense of it all.  As we track the progress of these rookies through the preseason, be sure to check back as we touch on these players again in our 2011 Season Preview to be launched in a few weeks.

Quarterbacks
Cam Newton
showed enough in Week 1 against the Giants to make the Panthers organization a bit more comfortable in their #1 overall selction.  The dude is an athletic freak and made a few throws that were impressive.  As expected, he made some mistakes too, but nothing to hit the panic button over for sure.  Word out of Panthers camp is that a conservative offensive attack led by a heavy dose of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is the game plan in 2011. This is great news for Cam and will go a long way in helping him develop.  Expect to see a big role for Newton in Weeks 2 and 3 of the Preseason as he strengthens his hold of the starting job over Jimmy Clausen.  We don't expect a regression in the next few weeks and we will be paying close attention to his decision making.  The loss of David Gettis weakens a rather average receiving corps, but to see Cam make more out of less will be a positive toward his development.  Cam Newton's Dynasty stock is on the rise.

Blaine Gabbert is going to push David Garrard this preseason.  While he absolutely needs some time holding a clipboard, we fully expect his strong performance in traning camp and Week 1 of the preseason to shorten Garrard's leash entering the 2011 season.  The Jags are struggling at the WR position and we still feel strongly it would be in the best benefit of Gabbert to sit behind Garrard for at the very least the most of 2011.  A few more decent preformances by Gabbert and this QB situation is going to get messy.  Blaine Gabberts Dynasty stock is on the rise.

We like Jake Locker's skill set, but would love to see him sit behind newly signed Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck for the next two seasons.  Hasselbeck has played a full 16 games only 3 times in his 12 year career so Locker's chance to see the field may come sooner than later.  Expect to see Locker take starter snaps in 2011, but this could be as much of a hindrance toward his development rather than progress. Early reports of Locker's improved accuracy after working with Hasselbeck are a definite reason for cautious optimism. Jake Locker's Dynasty stock is on the rise with the addition (and opportunity to sit for a season) behind Matt Hasselbeck.

Alex Smith is the starter in San Fran, but we expect Colin Kaepernick to find himself as the 49ers starter at some point this season.  Smith will get his chance, but new Head Coach Jim Harbaugh selected his QB of the future in Kaepernick.  Smith will be on a very short leash with 49er fans and the organization.  The second he falters there will be immense pressure for Kaepernick to hit the field.  Kaepernick will surely not be ready, but will get the benefit of the doubt as he struggles in his handful of 2011 starts.  He has QB1 talent and is a legit Dynasty prospect largely due to the fact his leash is longer than most of the other QB's drafted early in 2011.  The 49ers have a long way to go and so does the development of Kaepernick.  Alex Smith's Dynasty stock is on the decline and Kaepernick's is on the rise by default.

Andy Dalton could be one of the first rookies in game action this season, mainly because Carson Palmer has retired, leaving the newly signed Bruce Gradkowski as his only competition. Gradkowski is a gamer, but the Bengals are rebuilding and need to see what they have in Dalton sooner rather than later. Dalton was a winner at the collegiate level and brings strong leadership to Cincinnati, where he should develop a solid rapport with future Beasts AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham.  Dalton is going to be the starter Week 1, but we expect him to struggle.  Dynasty owners need to pay close attention to his development over the next few weeks.  Dalton's stock is status quo and long term upside is just average.

Christian Ponder is another rookie QB that finds himself taking a backseat to an aging veteran. Not necessarily a bad thing, Ponder probably does not need much more polish before he's ready to start at the NFL level. He brings a quality set of physical tools, but has been injury prone throughout his career. If Donovan McNabb struggles like he did with the Redskins, expect to see Ponder in relief. If not, Ponder will hold the clipboard and prepare for an intense camp battle in 2012.  The addition of McNabb puts Ponder's Dynasty stock on the up and up and Dynasty owners should consider taking advantage of falling value if they can acquire him on the cheap.  It really doesn't matter at this point how well he succeeds in the 2011 preseason.

Ryan Mallet remains one of our favorite QB's of this Draft Class.  Watch for how many reps he recieves this preseason.  It still may be a season or so out, but the Pats could very well have a plan to make him Brady's successor in 4 years, or move him in a season or 2.  This is an intruiging QB group in New England, as Brian Hoyer has also been in an audition as well. 

Running Backs
Mark Ingram
is prepared to contribute immediately.  On a high powered Saints offense and the recent release of Reggie Bush makes for a perfect recipe for Ingram to post RB1 type numbers week 1.  We really like his skill set, and while we realize he is not an elite talent, his situation is stacked for fantasy production.  He'll battle Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles for touches, but the more physical Ingram should get his number called early and often by Sean Payton.  The Saints organization has done nothing but rave about his development and clear understanding of this position making Ingram a legit Week 1 RB2 option.

The Ryan Williams hype train has slowed a bit with the recent support of Cardinals coaches toward the role Beanie Wells can play in 2011.  This is Beanies backfield (for now) until he proves otherwise.  Entering training camp this RB battle looked a bit more like it may be a Week 1 bout for the starting role.  The last few weeks however it has become clear that Ryan Williams is still a rookie and will have to take his lumps before landing solid snaps in this backfield.  The trade of 3rd down specialist Tim Hightower to the Redskins is a testament to the belief of the Williams-Wells duo to handle the Cardinals backfield in 2011.  What we do know about Williams is that he is a tough and competitive player that will push Beanie for snaps.  Don't be surprised to see Beanie finally breakout in 2011 and a solid backup in Williams also posting decent numbers while he waits for his chance. Both players have the talent to make this a Deangelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart-like timeshare.  Should Williams do something big in the next few weeks, we have full belief the Cardinals brass will shorten the leash on Beanie.

Mikel LeShoure was in a nice situation in Detroit, in line to possibly overtake an injury-prone and undersized Jahvid Best as the lead back. After tearing his Achilles, though, his long term upside is cloudy at best. If he can work his way back next season, he could compete for carries. If you spent a first round rookie pick on him, keep him stashed if your roster is deep enough.

What more can the brass of the Dolphins organization say in their trust of Daniel Thomas to be the lead guy right off the bat.  They have shown no interest in bringing back their RB's of the last few seasons (Ronnie Brown is now an Eagle, Ricky Williams a Raven) and they brought in Reggie Bush, an RB that everyone already knows isn't going to challenge for a big time workload rushing between the tackles.  For those that landed Thomas in Rookie Drafts have likely found themselves an instant impact talent.

Alex Green is buried deep on the Packers RB depth chart.  We didn't see him in Week 1 of the preseason, but we remain confident he has the skill set to carve out a small role in 2011.  He finds himself in a great situation and the patient Dynasty owner must monitor him closely to make sure he continues to progress. 

Frank Gore is "just" 28 years old, but he's only made it through one full season in the NFL. He'll remain the bell cow until he proves otherwise (coming faster than you think), but the Niners have been searching for a back-up for the past three seasons. That's where Kendall Hunter comes in. He's a small back, but packs a powerful punch in the running game and is a solid receiver out of the backfield with a Brian Westbrook-like skillset. Whether you own Gore or not, he's an RB to go after before he breaks out. The opportunity should present itself in the next few seasons.  He has shown an inability to pick up the blitz and as he only projects as a 3rd down back (for at least the time being) so he's not going to find the field without being a good blocker.
 
DeMarco Murray came into the league with a reputation for being a playmaker. And for being injuried. He's already lived up to part of that scouting report, having injuried himself very early in camp. Now he's missing valuable reps........His stock is falling.

Tim Hightower found his way to Washington.  This is a crowded backfield in typical Mike Shannahan fashion.  While we fully expect Ryan Torain to injure himself out of his role, and Tim Hightower (the most talented of the group) to fumble himself out of his role, there are are couple rookies to keep an eye on.  Roy Helu Jr. has led the hype train charge this preseason with skills suited to a zone blocking rushing scheme.  He probably has the fastest straight line speed of the group.  It was Evan Royster however that we saw get the lions share of carries in Week 1 Preseason action.  Follow this trend and see who emerges.  The one thing we are sure about is this backfield is going to be a fantasy mess.

Jordan Todman
showed some juice in camp to date.  Meanwhile the reports are that Ryan Williams has improved immensely following rumors he was out of shape and possibly falling out of favor.  Again, rumors galore, but Todman is hungry and could push for touches.  Problem here is he is buried by Williams and an undderrated Mike Tolbert.  Not a whole lot of immediate value here for the moment.
 
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
A.J. Green
has the potential to be a monster.  His only limitation is obviously the dysfunction in Cincinnati.  Green's Dynasty Upside is as high as any other in this year's rookie class and he is currently ranked as our #1 overall 2011 Dynasty Rookie prospect.   Early season training camp reviews have him outplaying everyone on the roster.  You may have to wait a season or two, to really reap the benefits of the complete player, but the worth may just very well be worth it.

A.J. Green's good buddy Julio Jones landed in a much better situation and has the potential to make a noticeable and immediate impact in his rookie season.  Jones is still the #2 receiving option behind Roddy White in the Falcons offense, but who better to learn the position from one of the leagues elite WR's. Jones is another player that is working as hard as any other player on the field.  Expectations are currently very high, but if rookie production is kept in prospective, Jones may very well be the top rookie wideout in this year's group.

Greg Little is currently penciled in as the Browns #1 wideout.  This could be due to the lack of overall skill at the position in Cleveland, or the fact that Little and his Beastly stature and skill set are not to be messed with.  The former RB turned receiver fits perfectly into the Browns west coast system and even more so to the skill set of QB Colt McCoy.  The two may grow to be best friends and we expect the devoted Little to become a favorite among fantasy owners.  Little has struggled to catch the football in training camp, but this can be forgiven considering this is the first football he has played in over 2 years. 

Jonathan Baldwin has great size and landed in a solid situation in Kansas City.  While his attitude remains a question mark, most think HC Todd Haley will point him in the right direction sooner than later.  The recent signing of Steve Breaston makes us think the Chiefs are likely not ready to thrust Baldwin into a big role, but we expect him to make his presence known even if it is inconsistent in his rookie year.  Baldwin has shown an inability to beat press coverage and currently project to be more of a slot option than anything else.  Without a huge increase in development of the next few weeks, this is looking to be a very difficult season for Baldwin.  Baldwin's stock is falling.

Torrey Smith has had his value impacted some with the odd offseaon moves by the Ravens.  Smith is now expected to lineup and produce opposite Anquan Boldin.  Smith is currently a deep threat and his situation could limit his ability to spread his wings.  We actually like the overall versatility of lesser known prospect Tandon Doss to make more of a rookie impact the Smith this season.

Leonard Hankerson is a nice talent in a horrible situation.  The Redskins are a mess right now and it is tough to trust a rookie wideout with the uncertainty at any of the skill positions. That being said, he should get solid reps as a rookie and with a QB solution next summer, he could be ready to contribute to fantasy leagues.  Niles Paul is another Redskins WR that looks to have a chance to make the squad in 2011 and find himself some starter reps as well.

We really like Randall Cobb as a poor mans Percy Harvin, however the Packers receiving corps is loaded with experienced veterans, especially with the recent resigning of James Jones.  It may be some time before Cobb finds fantasy value however.  Still too early to say, but he likely has more upside than Jordy Nelson and James Jones and may earn flex status by mid season.  2-3 years down the road Cobb looks to be one of our favorites based on his development to date.

Denarius Moore has seen his stock rise as high as any other rookie in 2011.  Earlier this summer he was no better than a 4th-5th round prospect in Dynasty rookie drafts, Moore is getting all kinds of fantasy love at the moment. We have heard reports that he is "the best player on the field" in Raiders practices.  Still too early to tell, but we know he's fast and like usual were not very impressed with the overall Raiders WR corps.  Moore is a player to pay attention to the remainder of this preseason, he has the potential for big things in 2011 and beyond.

The Rams are in need of weapons for young stallion Sam Bradford, and Lance Kendricks has the makings of a very reliable one. He's a versatile pass catcher from Wisconsin that is expected to have an impact very early this season. He gives Bradford a big target that can make plays with the ball in his hands. Plus, while not a standout, he is a solid enough blocker that it shouldn't ever hurt his playing time. He could reach TE2 value this season and his ceiling and situation make him a potential TE1 in the next couple seasons. Stock up in a big way for Kendricks.

Jordan Cameron has been touted as potentially one of the steals of the 2011 NFL Draft.  Cameron is former basketball star turned Tight End in the mold of a Jimmy Graham (Saints).  Watch his progress closely as there is still a heated competition in Cleveland for receiving targets.  Between Greg Little and Cameron, Colt McCoy might find himself some evolving receving stars.

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