Needs Not Wants

The backfield battle between Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells ended abruptly following the brutal season ending patelar tendon tear Williams suffered in Week 2 preseason action.  Beanie has been waiting for his chance to be the lead dog and now gets his chance.  Beanie has fallen out of favor with most fantasy owners.  Keep in mind the latter half of Well's rookie season was impressive and he spent most of his sophomore campaign injured and ineffective.  The former 1st round pick is superbly talented, but still has a plenty to prove before he regains any legitimate Dynasty status, most noteably whether he has the mental makeup/toughness to be handle every down duties.  The Ryan Williams injury (the same suffered by Cadillac Williams) is potentially career threatening, but he is a talented player and very young at 21, so Dynasty owners shouldn't give up hope yet, but should only be kept in the deepest of Dynasty Leagues. 

Montario Hardesty and Brandon Jackson (turf toe) are going to compete for carries behind Peyton Hillis.  Hillis carried the football a lot last season, and looks to be in for a simialr workload in 2011.  Yes folks, he's an injury risk.  Hardesty was highly regarded as a Rookie Year Standout until he was lost for the season to a knee injury in the 2010 preseason.  He is healthy again and the generally ineffective Brandon Jackson poses little threat to Hardesty if he can prove to stay on the field...a big if.  Hardesty will get a shot at some point in the season should Hillis find himself sidelined, and could provide some decent value.  Stay tuned. 

The QB Battle in Denver never really lived up to the hype.  In only 3 preaseason games, the highly regarded Tim Tebow has fallen as potentially 4th on the QB depth chart, while Kyle Orton easily established himself as the season starter.  The Broncos Defense will be improved in 2011 and we expect a more competitive team.  This will keep Orton on the field for the whole season, where most expected he would be pulled in favor of Tebow by mid 2011 as part of a drawn out evaluation.  Brady Quinn has been solid this preseason and has made a case as a deep sleeper to keep an eye on the next season or two.  While we all know John Fox as a defense and run oriented head coach, it will be interesting to see what John Elway's influence does to open this offense up a bit.

Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert are not in much of a position battle, however the extremely tough Tolbert looks to seriously cut into the underachieving Mathews value in 2011 - especially around the goal line.  Mathews came under much scrutinty this preaseason, arriving out of shape and failing his conditioning tests.  He reportedly has made an immediate 180 turn in the positive direction, but until he proves it on Sunday's  in the regular season, we've got Tolbert held a bit higher in regard.  Jordan Todman has also earned a few 3rd down carries in 2011. 

John Beck vs. Rex Grossman is still an unknown.  They have flipped flopped each week as the leader in camp and in typical Mike Shannahan fashion there will be question marks all season long, unless one of these players makes a clear jump to prominance - which won't happen.  Oh yeah, there is also the RB situation in Washinton.  A backfield loaded with average talent, it is nearly impossible to tell who will emerge as the bell cow.  Tim Hightower is a better player than he has been given credit for and should hold onto the lead job as long as he can keep hold of the football.  Roy Helu Jr. and Ryan Torain will also make this backfield a very frustrating situation.

The New York Giants #3 Receiving job is wide open.  Hakeem Nicks is the clear #1 and has Top-3 WR potential with a full healthy season - we love his talent but need to see him stay healthy before touting him as a true Beast.  Mario Manningham is clearly an underrated Dynasty talent that will be heavily targeted in NY this season.  Manningham will likely be moved to the slot to utilize his versatility and in this role can provide high WR2 value.  The loss of TE Kevin Boss (currently dealing with a knee injury) to the Raiders is going to severly inhibit the Giants offense as they lose the dual blocking receiving threat he once provided to the offense.  TE Travis Beckum has no blocking ability and is not a good receiver - zero Dynasty value.  Victor Cruz and Dominik Hixon are both decent talents, but Cruz has the higher upside and may emerge as a decent flex option in time. Jerrel Jernigan, the Giants third round pick this past year, has shown that he is a raw product and will need time to develop. He's a long term stash at this point.

The Bears wideout situation is wide open.  Without a stud on the roster, opportunity knocks.  They just paid Roy Williams too much money, and it will only be a matter of time before Johnny Knox regains his starting role in this offense.  He reportedly gained some weight this offseason and still has obvious speed to burn.  Earl Bennett and Devin Hester are both decent players, but neither should emerge as reliable fantasy starters however Hester does have some upside as he continues to grow into a role of a full time WR. 

Ryan Grant took a reduction in salary to stick it out in Green Bay and likely compete for another Superbowl Ring.  Smart move for him as they would have likely shipped him out of town at his previous pay day.  He still may stink it up in 2011, but the salary based incentives under his new deal will likely keep him motivated.  There is a lot to look for in this backfield while James Starks and Alex Green are both intruiging options and Dimitri Nance has also showed promise.   All three should be owned in all Dynasty leagues, with Ryan Grant clearly having the last amount of upside at this point.  Long story short, the starter in Green Bay has legit value, but there is an overall cap considering they have one of the best players in the league who happens to chuck the rock very well.

The 49ers brought drama queen Braylon Edwards in from New York.  Edwards has lots of talent, but hasn't put up big numbers since 2007.  It's tough to expect this may change any time soon, but he will clearly have a role in this offense.  Michael Crabtree has missed a 3rd straight preseason due to injury - or just being a diva, but none the less, any more significant time will undoubtedly cut into his long term development.  Crabs is still a big time talent (not elite however) that will fit into this system once it finally takes off under new HC Jim Harbaugh.  Josh Morgan has grown as a player and will line up in the slot this season.  He and Alex Smith have a chemistry, and in a pinch there may be some value here as well,, plus Morgan is a Harbaugh type of player - hard working and smart.  Vernon Davis is still the top dog in this offense, but again it all comes down to whether Alex Smith can get the rock to his wideouts.  If not, the drop off when Colin Kapernick steps in will be significant should they cut the leash on Smith in 2011.

Ryan Fitzpatrick provided some good value last season in Buffalo and is the unquestioned starter heading into 2011.  He is a cerebral player that is reasonably accurate and has a gunslinger mentality.  While he makes some mistakes with INT's, he showed he can occasionally post a solid fantasy day on any given weekend.  The Bills opted against adding a QB in this years Draft, also a good sign they have confidence in Fitzpatrick.  The Bills did however decide to add veteran Tyler Thigpen to the mix, and this is an immediate red flag in our eyes.  Not a huge red flag, but there is something to monitor here.  We know Fitzpatrick is not a franchise guy.  We also know that HC Chan Gailey is a skilled/veteran risk taker when it comes to QB management, so we wouldn't be too surprised to see the Bills make a switch to Thigpen if Fitzpatrick falters at any point in 2011.  Thigpen had some success running the same offense under Gailey in 2007/08 in Kansas City.  Neither player is a high level Dynasty prospect and too much value shouldn't be placed on either QB, but for a couple weeks in 2011 there could be some value here in certain league formats.
 

Jared Cook has the measurables of a Beast at the tight end position. He started to show a glimpse of what he is capable of towards the end of last season and he's locked in as the Titans starter in 2011. Outside of Kenny Britt, he's the 2nd most talented pass catcher in Tennessee. The tight end position is deep and his career numbers are underwhelming, which makes for a perfect recipe to buy low. He has Top 7 upside.

Shonn Greene has a similar fantasy skillset to Michael Turner. He's a wrecking ball that can break off a big play, but does not stay involved in the passing game, limiting his long term upside. That doesn't mean he cannot be a very useful fantasy player, though. At this point he's almost a post hype prospect, having been on the verge of a breakout since his performance in the 2009 playoffs. LT's arrival delayed that, but it shouldn't stop him this year as he becomes the Jets workhorse.

Harry Douglas is two years removed from an ACL.  He is surrounded by offensive weaponry (Roddy White and Julio Jones) and therefore competing for targets. He has the skill set to be one of the better slot receivers in the league.  Likely an inconsistent option, but in larger leagues he will serve as a decent flex option on a team expected to start letting Matty Ice open it up some.

Colt McCoy does not have QB1 upside, but that doesn't mean he should be completely dismissed as a long term prospect. He doesn't have the rocket arm of a Josh Freeman, but he has above average athletic ability and a high football IQ. In just his 2nd season, this is a pivotal year for young Colt. He needs to show the Browns organization that he is capable of not only leading the team, but leading the team into the playoffs. He has QB2 upside and could make for an excellent back-up to a high risk or aging stud such as Mike Vick or Peyton Manning.
 
 

Is Randy Moss really done? It appears that way, at least for now. We'll see come September or October when a contending team is dealing with an injury and makes him an offer. Don't cut bait just yet, but the way we have seen him play the last season and a half, don't plan on counting on too much production from him should he decide to make a return to football.

Austin Collie is a precise route runner with outstanding hands. Last season, though, he suffered at least 3 serious concussions and only played in 9 games. He still managed 58 catches, 649 yards and 8 TD's in limited action, so the skillset and opportunity are definitely there for huge fantasy numbers. The risk is obvious, with another concussion possibly knocking him out for an extended period of time.

Maurice Jones-Drew battled through a knee injury last season and still managed over 1,600 total yards and 7 TD's. He had knee surgery in the offseason and is just getting back to game ready form. He is scheduled to play in the Jaguars final preseason game Thursday, but there are question marks until he flashes his pre-injury form. MJD has proven to be an extremely durable and productive player, but any serious knee surgery raises a red flag. High upside handcuff Rashad Jennings is also nursing an injury at the moment, but as long as it's not serious, he's a must have for MJD owners. He should see a significant amount of work this year to keep MJD healthy.


Preseason Hype Train



The aforementioned Tim Hightower has been vaulting up re-draft boards with his preseason play. His skillset plays well in the Redskins zone-blocking scheme, and has proven in the past to have a nose for the endzone. He'll be battling playmaking rookie Roy Helu Jr. for carries all year and with Shanahan you can never rule out Ryan Torain. That makes Hightower risky at his current market value, as the situation has the potential to get cloudy at any moment.

Denarius Moore was a 5th round pick this past April with great speed and solid measurables, making him a natural fit for the Raiders. He has by all accounts been the star of training camp for the Silver and Black, consistently making plays and impressing onlookers. He is in a situation where he could find himself getting serious playing time this season. Dynasty owners have already taken notice and he's got the talent to take a chance on for sure.

Julio Jones has been catching everything in camp and during game action this summer. His arrow is pointed way up and he's likely to back it up. AJ Green has the slight talent edge, but Jones is in a perfect situation for 2011 fantasy success. If you can acquire or draft him in a Dynasty league, it would be advisable to overpay. He'll be worth it in the long term.

The 'end of last season' hype train saw a BeastOrBust favorite explode onto the scene. Jordy Nelson make a name for himself by lighting it up in the Super Bowl. That fire was fueled by the fact that James Jones was a free agent this summer before Jones threw a wet blanket on the fun by resigning with the Pack. Nelson's a better talent than Jones and should be the Packers 2nd best WR this year. With so many weapons for Aaron Rodgers to throw to, though, Nelson's fantasy impact will be inconsistent.

Blaine Gabbert certainly looks like an elite NFL QB. He has the arm and physical measurables necessary, but can he play the part on Sundays? That's the question that has plagued Gabbert's Dynasty stock, as he's reportedly looked terrific on the practice field this summer, but has struggled some in pre-season action. He was battling veteran David Garrard for the starting job, but he's clearly not ready and should hold a clipboard for at least the first half of 2011.


Team Analysis

The 2010 NFL Superbowl Champions - The Green Bay Packers are still the team to beat in 2011. They also did not rest on their laurels, adding two potential rookie contributers in RB Alex Green and WR Randall Cobb. Then, to the dismay of many a fantasy owner, they resigned James Jones, raining on the Jordy Nelson hype party. Aaron Rodgers will continue to spread the ball around, with the primary beneficiaries being Greg Jennings and a healthy Jermichael Finley. The RB situation has the potential to be a fantasy mess, but expect Ryan Grant to be the lead back here, followed by James Starks and 3rd down playmaker Alex Green. Offensive powerhouse.

From the penthouse to the outhouse...the Washington Redskins have waged the first strike in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes by committing to John Beck or Rex Grossman as their starting QB. Their WR corp. is not much better, with the consistently inconsistent Santana Moss returning as the WR1, followed by newly acquired Jabar Gaffney and potential rookie contributers Leonard Hankerson and Niles Paul. They drafted the promising Roy Helu and Evan Royster this April to team with the oft-injuried Ryan Torain. Then, in true Shananan fashion, they traded for Tim Hightower this summer. Now, we have a mess on our hands. Hightower brings slightly above average talent to the table, but he can do a little bit of everything just well enough to be fantasy relevant. Torain is coming off of a solid 2010 campaign, but injuries make him a risky Dynasty player. Helu has the most upside, but he'll need to show his talents in game action in order to earn the Shananan's trust. Royster was a sneaky selection out of Penn State, but for now he's a stash in deep leagues. Promising 2nd year talent Keiland Williams is taking snaps at fullback, which would kill his fantasy value.
 

Projections/Misc. Thoughts