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4. Larry Fitzgerald - Cardinals
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 | Beast vs. Bust |
Anquan Boldin
BEAST
Anquan Boldin has been fantasy relevant since Week 1 of his NFL career, hanging 10 catches, 217 yards and 2 TD’s on the Detroit Lions. He continued to take the league by storm as a rookie, posting 101 catches for 1,377 yards and 8 TD’s in 16 games. The physical receiver has battled nagging injuries ever since, playing a full season only once since 2003. Boldin is a PPR machine, racking up an average of over 6 catches per game in his 6 year career.
Moving toward present day, Boldin's 2008 season and offseason to follow were full of drama. Boldin had face surgery after a vicious hit by Jets safety Eric Smith in Week 4, but he bounced back after missing just two games. He was bothered by shoulder injury that forced him out of the final two regular season games. He got into a spat with then Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley during the playoffs. And to top it off, he demanded a new contract for a second straight offseason and was the subject of pre-draft trade rumors. Through all of that, Boldin was the highest per game average scoring WR in the fantasy football. So while he missed four games due to injury, Boldin still put up 89 catches, 1,038 yards and 11 TD’s. When you produce like that, fantasy owners tend to excuse a player that is going to miss 2 or 3 games a season.
Because of his high level of productivity, Boldin has an incredibly high ceiling. In seasons where he has managed to stay on the field for 14 games or more (only one game more than his seasonal average), he has produced nearly 1,330 yards and 6 TD's on 95 receptions. In a full 16 game season, tack on an additional 15 receptions, 200 total yards and 2 TD's and were easily talking top 3 WR production here. Production like this cannot be ignored.
Because of his high level of productivity, Boldin has an incredibly high ceiling. In seasons where he has managed to stay on the field for 14 games or more (only one game more than his seasonal average), he has produced nearly 1,330 yards and 6 TD's on 95 receptions. In a full 16 game season, tack on an additional 15 receptions, 200 total yards and 2 TD's and were easily talking top 3 WR production here. Production like this cannot be ignored.
For at least the next two seasons expect the Cardinals to remain a pass first team. As long as Boldin remains in the desert, continue to expect big stats. Fellow stud Kurt Warner signed a two year deal in the offseason, but at 38 years old, this could be his last season. One time uber-prospect Matt Leinart would likely step in and take over the offensive reigns. While a slight drop off would be expected, Boldin and Fitzgerald are too talented not to produce. If Boldin takes off for greener pastures as a free agent after 2010, he will likely be rewarded handsomely to be some lucky team’s WR1, a role he has played to some acclaim since stepping on an NFL field in 2003. Boldin’s stock and fantasy numbers should benefit from being the go-to guy again, even if he lands in a run-first offense.
Consistency wins in fantasy football. Anquan Boldin is one of the 5 most talented WR in the NFL and right now is one of the most consistent players you could own. Expect him to miss a few games each season but also expect him to produce huge numbers when he plays. At just 28 years old, he has 4 or 5 more seasons of beastly fantasy production left in him.
BUST
"I'll take NFL Fantasy Football Wide Receivers for 2009, Alex."
"This WR is extremely productive...when he is on the field, but has only averaged 13.3 games played per season in his NFL Career"
BUST
"I'll take NFL Fantasy Football Wide Receivers for 2009, Alex."
"This WR is extremely productive...when he is on the field, but has only averaged 13.3 games played per season in his NFL Career"
"Who is Anquan Boldin?"
Ding Ding. This pretty much sums up Anquan Boldin's career. There is no doubt his on the field production is as high as any other receiver in the league. The problem here, is the fantasy season is typically 16 games long. Unfortuantely, the highly talented and undoubtedly tough Arizona Cardinals WR cannot seem to stay on the field for all of them (13 game per season average). Boldin has managed to play a full 16 game season only twice in his 6 year career, and has missed 4 games each of his last two seasons. This is not a comfortable trend for fantasy owners. Plain and simple, tough players on the bench don't score you fantasy points.
Boldin is generally regarded as the 10th best fantasy WR in the league (we currently have him ranked as the #11 Dynasty WR). Also consistent with this ranking, a look at his 2009 ADP situates him as the 9th-11th WR off the board typically chosen in the 3rd round. A discerning Dynasty player with their eye on the future must take a critical look at his current percieved value, specifically as too high. One of the most difficult tasks Dynasty players face is weighing youth and upside against current and future value. This task becomes even more difficult when determining a value for a skill player in the #8-12 range of their respective positions. That middle ground somewhere between elite and average can easily go either way in a fantasy debate. Taking a look at Boldin's current percieved value you will notice a growing list of players (ranked below Boldin) posting similar seasonal average reception, yardage and TD totals. For example:
Santonio Holmes, Eddie Royal, Desean Jackson, Anthony Gonzalez, Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson, Reggie Wayne, and teammate Steve Breaston. None of these players (other than Reggie Wayne) have proven to be the talent Anquan Boldin is, but, their current production is closely similar to Boldin's season average of 84 receptions for 1,080 yards and 7 TD's. Landing one of these players later in your draft or through a trade involving Boldin is equal value at a low price. It makes sense to me.
Boldn wants out of Arizona. Whether that happens is yet to be seen. The Cardinals remain a pass happy offense with the most elite WR corps in the NFL anchored by the leagues top WR Larry Fitzgerald. Boldin will still put up legit stat lines should he stay in Arizona, however he's approaching 30 and has a history of missing games. The guys not gonna get healthier, that is for sure. So lets say he leave the desert for another franchise. Can Boldin produce as highly without double coverage being consistently drawn to Fitz? Who knows, but it's not something I would want to test out if I was a Boldin owner. Sell Boldin now while his value is high. The value you can get for him right now will definitely outweigh the frustration you will experiece while your #1/#2 fantasy WR is sitting on your bench injured.
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