Kyle Orton is putting up serious fantasy numbers this season which is making fantasy owners everywhere take notice. For redrafters, it is pretty cut and dry. He is going to continue to be a QB1 this season because of the system he is playing in. Enjoy the production, because it is not likely to dip much as the season goes on. For Dynasty owners, though, the long term question still remains...Is Kyle Orton a true fantasy Beast?



BEAST

Kyle Orton is better known for his neck beard than a set of NFL Quarterback "intangibles."  Orton's early career, plagued by QB competition and minor injuries, has established him as a  frustrating fantasy football QB...until now.  2010 marks the 2nd consecutive season Orton has lined up under center as the starting signal caller for a Josh McDaniels led Denver Broncos offense.  While he impressed in his first season in Denver, passing for over 3,800 yards, his start to 2010 has been far beyond anyone's expectations.

Orton left Purdue labeled as a winner, having started in 4 consecutive bowl games at the collegiate level.  Like Drew Brees before him, he learned high level on-field decision making under Joe Tiller at Purdue, a skill set that Orton can finally use to his advantage for a team devoted to a technical offensive scheme predicated on passing.  Orton was drafted by the Chicago Bears in the 4th Round of the 2005 NFL Draft, and spent his first three full seasons battling an inept Rex Grossman for the starting job in the Windy City.  Following a mix of early career high's and low's, Orton was traded to the Broncos as part of the legendary Jay Cutler trade between the Bears and Broncos.   Additionally, as part of the Josh McDaniels legendary Broncos roster overhaul, Orton once again stared in the face of adversity as Brandon Marshall was shipped out of Mile High to South Beach, and the Broncos selected collegiate QB legend Tim Tebow in the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft.  As the 2010 Season approached, Kyle Orton was coming off a career season and there was little certainty he would win the starting job in 2010. Orton easily won the starting job, and through this process, he developed a humility and toughness that is finally being realized in Denver.

Through 6 Weeks of the 2010 Season, it is clear that Orton has a firm grasp on McDaniels complicated offensive system.  Orton currently leads the league in pass attempts, and as a result, has produced big time fantasy production.  Orton is currently on pace to pass for over 5,000 yards, succeeding in a offense utilizing a group of relatively unknown WR's (led by Brandon Lloyd).  The Broncos also have no rushing attack - a recipe for fantasy success, that will continue through the 2010 season.  Despite his reputation as a passer with a weak arm, Orton has squashed that stereotype in 2010, leading the league with pass plays over 40 yards (7) and second behind Phillip Rivers with pass plays over 20 yards (31) (the next closest is Eli Manning with 21). 

Kyle Orton is a legit Dynasty Prospect with significantly more actual value than perceived.  At only 27 years old, he is still a very young player that is making a strong case in 2010 that he warrants elite fantasy status.  While he doesn't have the off-the-charts intangibles that every NFL team is looking for, Orton has smarts, toughness and a bigger arm than advertised.  He also has a solid supporting receiving cast and an emerging prospect in Demaryius Thomas who has a skill set to be a legit #1 WR.  Orton has recently signed a two year extension with the Broncos and will not lose the starting role to Tim Tebow in 2011.  After 2011, where he will end up is anyones guess, but he is currently Beasting his resume in a league that is starved for Quarterbacks that can win games.  In the short term, Josh McDaniels will always pass the football often and Orton will reap the benefits.  Production through volume.  Orton's best football is ahead of him.

BUST

Kyle Orton is what he is at this point in his career...a solid to above average NFL QB. He is an intelligent signal caller that reads defenses very well. He is an accurate passer, especially on short and intermediate passes and his arm strength is adequate. So what has fantasy owners plugging him into their lineups everyday? Well, right now he is playing at a QB1 level and that is expected to be the case for at least the rest of this season and possibly all of 2011 as well. Attempting over 41 passes per game could have something to do with that. So can playing on a Josh McDaniels led team that seems allergic to establishing the run. He lost one of the best receivers in the game when the Broncos dealt Brandon Marshall to Miami this offseason, but that has not slowed him down. He is making guys like Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney fantasy relevant, for which he deserves credit.

Situational fantasy production is lucrative, but it can be risky business, especially when you are building a Dynasty roster with long term goals. Much like a sand bar that drifts away without warning, situations in the NFL can change rapidly. At this point, it is all speculation as to when Orton's productive situation will change, but do you want to gamble? Josh McDaniels needs to start winning football games or his time in Denver is going to be short lived. That would likely wipe away Kyle Orton's current elite status. A number of other things could change the fact that Orton is passing almost 10 more times per game than he did last season. At some point, the Broncos are going to need to start running the ball to win games and control the clock.

Make no mistake about it...Tim Tebow is the future of the Broncos. As good as Orton has played, he does not possess elite upside, both in real life football and fantasy. Tim Tebow, while no sure thing to be even 75% as effective as Orton, has elite upside and is a natural born winner. He was drafted in the first round for a reason and that is to eventually lead this Broncos team to a Super Bowl. Now, he definitely needs a few years to develop and Orton's play right now is making that possible. The Orton owner would be smart to handcuff Tebow on a Dynasty roster, even if you have to overpay a bit.

What do you do if you own him? Honestly, it really depends on your league. If you can get top tier talent in return, move him now. Ideally, though, you should look to move him this offseason after he has finished compiling an impressive season of over 4,000 yards and 25+ TD's. His value will likely never be higher. Of course, if you cannot get anywhere near true value for him, just hold onto him and enjoy that sand bar. Just remember that eventually it is going to wash away and you'll find yourself treading water.