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| Nature Of The Beast |
Quarterbacks:
Although Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez highlighted the 2009 QB draft class it appears that Josh Freeman could be emerging into the Top Dynasty Prospect from the group. Freeman has gotten off to a strong start this season with a pair of Rookie receivers and a running game that is less than impressive. Freeman has 5 TD passes through a 3-1 start that currently has the Bucs competing for a top spot in their division. It is clear that Freeman is developing into a Franchise QB in Tampa and with a nice season this year, he may help save the job of Head Coach Raheem Morris into the 2011 season. Morris has a long history with Freeman and is likely one of his biggest advocates. While Freeman has shown some nice growth, he has a long way to go. A stable coaching situation is very important at this stage in his learning curve, so Freeman owners should be rooting heavily for the Bucs this season. Freeman is worth some starts this season and is already a Dynasty commodity that you are going to have to pay for.
The Bills are the worst team in the league this season - a trend that most fantasy owners typically want to stay away from. While the Bills aren't producing serious fantasy production, they are mostly playing from behind, and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a bright spot putting together two strong games in consecutive weeks, all while helping the emergence of one of our favorite EDP's Steve Johnson. The Bills will look for a new QB in the offseason, so Fitzpatrick won’t be a long term play. In a very tough spot in 2010, Fitzpatrick could earn a start in 2 QB leagues or in the place of a short term injury and a bye week filler. Dynasty League players should be looking to move Fitzpatrick while his stock has some value. Look for a team that is in QB trouble, that has a missing piece you have been looking for.
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Running Backs:
It was only a matter of time before Ray Rice had a breakout game, and to the relief of his owners it came on a monster performance. The first four weeks were ones to forget, as he was a Top 10 fantasy draft pick coming into the season and a Dynasty commodity that most were willing not to part with. Rice bruised through 27 carries and 133 yards with 2 goal line touchdowns proving that his recent knee injury is not affecting him. It seems Ray Rice is breaking out at the perfect time as the Ravens offense is finding a nice balance running the ball. The Ravens upcoming schedule match up against average rush defenses, so we expect that Rice is fully healthy and set to rack up 100 yards and a TD every week most weeks from here on out. He is facing the Patriots next week in New England, where he broke the first play from scrimmage in the Divisional Playoff last year for an eighty yard TD. Unfortunately, those looking for his recent struggles to buy him cheap have officially missed the boat. The fact Will McGahee wasn't as productive around the goal line should also have owners smiling.
From a game to game basis, it is going to be hard to tell if Matt Forte is going to bust out a big game. Week 5 was one of those weeks. Forte is not an inside rusher we thought he would be after his rookie season. He has fallen far in our Dynasty Rankings as such. Mike Martz’s new offense utilizes Forte more as a receiver than a rusher, and fantasy owners can be comfortable with this role. However, Week 5 the Bears got their first 2 rushing TD’s of the year and this should spark some intrigue by Bears coaches. Mike Martz is always going to initiate a big time pass attack, but behind a horrible offensive line that has already sidelined Cutler due to concussion, the Bears may commit to a bigger ground attackout of necessity. Forte owners that are in contention should be thinking about sticking by him this season as he could be in line for nice production moving forward. Rebuilding owners should move Forte in the coming weeks as his value will continue to rise. Forte is what he is.
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Wide Receivers:
Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd are one of the most effective fantasy tandems in the league. Yeah, Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd.... This is the third week in a row that Orton has been mentioned in this column, and rightly so, but this is the first recognition for Lloyd. Lloyd is off to a monster start and is posting Top-5 WR numbers. He has already posted 4 games over 100 receiving and 3 TD's. By mid season, Lloyd will likely have surpassed his career season high statistical totals, and is on pace for approx. 1,300 yards and double digit TD. Lloyd is providing plenty of value right now while most owners landed him off the waiver early this season. His Dynasty value is limited however. Lloyd will be 30 next year, and while he has little tread on his tires, this situation is a production through volume situation. Lloyd should be moved in most situations while his value is extremely high. His 2010 season value is huge however as the running game in Denver is non-existent and they will continue to throw often. Keep in mind that Demaryius Thomas continues to evolve and a hardcore breakout is not expected until next season Lloyd remains a WR1 value until then.
Quick, name a player that is clearly overrated that is reaping the benefits of his surrounding talent. The easy answer here is Roy E. Williams. As a number 1 guy, his skills are embarrassing (especially for Jerry Jones), however when surrounded by ridiculous talent on a squad that passes as much as any other in the league, Roy Williams all of a sudden has value. Now temper you expectations here. Williams is one of our least favorite "name players" in the league, but his value as a Flex player that has scored three TD's in his last two games must be considered. Williams is now an afterthought when scheming for the Cowboys and Williams is reaping all the benefit. It also seems Williams has accepted his role on this squad and with an 8 TD season, he may find himself with a contract on another squad in need of a WR in 2011...and back to mediocrity. Move him now while the going is good.
Greg Jennings, where have you gone? The Beastly Packers offensive squad hasn't been firing on all cylinders and our favorite TE Dynasty talent Jeremichael Finley looks to be out for up to 6 Weeks (on to that in a minute...). Oh yeah, Aaron Rodgers could miss Week 6 as he recovers from a late game concussion suffered vs. the Skins in an Overtime loss. So what does all this mean. Go get Jennings now. The more productive Donald Driver might be worth an add if he can be bought on the super cheap. Jennings has struggled badly as of late as Rodgers has spread the ball all over the place. Use this opportunity to buy some value on the Cheap. Read on for the downside of this argument.
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When one of the leagues top skill position players goes down, it is worth mentioning. Jeremichael Finley looks to miss 6 Weeks with an MCL injury. This is a big loss for the Packers passing game which hasn't been as impressive as most expected heading into 2010. The Packers are still a pass first offense, but they will have a harder time moving the football in the absence of Finley and an established rushing attack. The remaining Packers receivers, especially Jennings and Driver get a bump in value. Backup TE Donald Lee was the recipient of a Rodgers TD pass, so it is quite clear, they will continue to spread it around despite what personnel takes the offensive side of the ball however. Lee was also injured, so take a look at TE Andrew Quarless who hauled in 4 catches for 51 yards (more production than Jennings), but stay away if Rodgers misses this upcoming weeks game due to injury.
Marcedes Lewis is putting together a breakout season and may be saving the career of David Garrard. Lewis snatched 2 more TD’s and 54 more yards this last weekend and has been easily the most productive Jags receiving option. Lewis is worth an immediate add off the waiver wire as we are entering deep into waiver season. The Jags situation is one where you are not going to post monster numbers by starting Lewis, but when you reach TE talent ranked outside the Top-15, a player that gets into the end zone often from the position is worth an add.
It seems as though a good deal has changed in SF in the last two weeks following the firing of former OC Jimmy Raye. A bump in production from most of the 49ers skill players is evident and Vernon Davis is smiling as much as anyone on the squad. Despite the loss, Davis could be back to his old self, where 80 yards and a TD can be expected on a weekly basis. With new offensive coordinator Mike Johnson, Davis has seen the ball a lot more especially in crucial moments where the Beast can be counted on to come up with the big play. An important thing to remember here is that the QB situation is still shaky in SF and while Alex Smith passed for over 300 yards last night, his play wasn't particularly impressive. He is on thin ice and a poor performance could land him on the bench and as a backup QB for the remainder of his career. This is a tremendous amount of pressure for the QB and a collective group of skill players (Davis, Crabtree and Gore) each stand to have their fantasy production directly affected.