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 Beast vs. Bust
Posted by BeastOrBust on Thursday, Nov 11 2010  -  about 2 years ago
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Darren McFadden vs. LeSean McCoy
Coming into the league, Darren McFadden and LeSean McCoy were both seen as explosive running backs that could deal with injuries at the next level. McFadden was drafted 4th overall in 2008 and was the more heralded prospect, but he has only started to emerge this season because of injuries. Right now, he is leading all RB's in yards per game and if it was not for missing two games due to injury, Run DMC might be the Number One scoring back in fantasy leagues. McCoy was drafted in the 2nd round and hit the ground running and receiving as a pro. He followed quickly in the footsteps of Brian Westbrook and has developed into an RB1 in just his second season. In a Dynasty league, who do you want on your roster...Shady or Run DMC?



Darren McFadden
Darren McFadden is finally looking legit.  But for how long will a high level of production last, and is he for real as a valuable Dynasty RB commodity? Through 9 weeks of the 2010 Fantasy season, Run DMC has established himself within the Top-5 of total rushing yards gained, and has the highest yards per game average (108.1) of all NFL RB's.  Additionally, McFadden is averaging approximately 20 carries per game with the 2nd highest yard per carry average (5.4) of all backs who carry the rock over 15 times per game. With 24 receptions added to his solid effort on the ground, Darren McFadden is primed for a Top-5 Fantasy Season for RB's. 

Darren McFadden entered the NFL in 2008 as a consensus Top-2 Dynasty Rookie Draft pick.  His first two seasons in the league were plagued by injury - skinny legs, underwhelming production and a growing concern for his future outlook as a fantasy prospect.  In fact, many Dynasty owners have already cut bait, despite the big time price tag paid just two seasons earlier.  For the patient few, Darren McFadden now has seen his value skyrocket, however the discerning Dynasty owner must make wise decisions with McFadden as his Dynasty value remains volatile.

So the facts: 1) When Darren McFadden is on the field (at least through 9 games in 2010), he is a versatile and productive weapon capable of big time fantasy production - basically a more productive version of Reggie Bush, 2) Darren McFadden has never played more than 13 games in a season, and has already missed 2 games in 2010, 3) McFadden is one of the few RB's in the league that has established himself as a true feature back, so the necessary volume is in place for consistent success, 4) The Raiders have found a semblance of a passing game which has improved rushing opportunities for DMC.

The remainder of 2010 is going to tell us a lot about the Dynasty Value of Run DMC.  A continued high level of success will re-establish him as one of the leagues most valued players at his position, and rightly so.  In fact, his value is even higher in leagues that reward PPR considering he is a 50+ catch player.  The issue with using the remainder of 2010 to evaluate the long term value of McFadden runs an element of risk.  A late season slip in production or worse, an injury forcing him to miss a few games will permanently tarnish his value.  How Dynasty owners manage Run DMC is purely dependent on their current roster and team needs, most specifically depth at the RB position.  Darren McFadden appears to have become a feature back that is injury prone...not a great combination for consistent fantasy success.  However, his current production will tease owners into years of Top-5 production.  McFadden's immediate value is very high and Top 10-15 QB, Top 7-10 WR or a Top-3 TE can be expected as trade compensation.  Expect significantly less return the moment he misses any more time due to injury.  The ultimate high risk / high reward player.



LeSean McCoy
LeSean McCoy is a highly versatile running back whose skill set will only improve as he continues to receive valuable reps in an explosive Eagles backfield. In just his second season, he has already shown to be a perfect fit in the Eagles system. His skillset on a team that loves to pass often and does not really believe in establishing the run each week with a power inside attack. He is not the bruising runner that you feed the ball to in the 4th quarter to kill the clock and that has never been a big part of the Eagles game anyway. What he brings to the table is top of the line speed and breakaway potential every time the ball is in his hands. He is a deceptively strong runner with superior vision, although his game is more speed than power. Just like his predecessor, Brian Westbrook, he is already one of the best pass catching backs in the NFL.

At Pitt, Shady was a machine. He scored 36 TD's in two seasons, combined for over 3,000 yards of offense and caught 65 balls. At 5'11" and 210 lbs., he has a solid build, but could struggle to be a true workhorse at the NFL level. He also was a suspect blocker and needs to continue to improve in that area as his game matures. The Eagles recognized prior to the 2009 draft that Westbrook was not the same player he was a few years earlier and even more injury-prone, making McCoy a perfect apprentice. He was pressed into duty earlier than expected, but held his own as a rookie with 4 TD's, almost 1,000 combined yards and 40 receptions. Shady may never produce the top line RB1 numbers on a week to week basis that Westbrook did, but he has legit Beast potential and has flashed that in his sophomore campaign. His YPC is up to 4.7 and he's on pace for over 1,700 yards. He's also a good bet to lead RB's in receptions, with 41 through 8 games. Andy Reid has integrated McCoy into his game plan in a big way, but not too big where it may become a negative. With Mike Vick under center, teams are extra careful of him taking off, leaving wide open lanes for Shady. With Kolb under center, he becomes more of a reliable receiving option on dump offs. That makes his potential as a Beast  regardless of who is under center.

At this point, LeSean McCoy is already an RB1, albeit an inconsistent one on a week to week basis. That inconsistency in his running game is balanced out by his receiving ability, which makes him a Top 5 RB to own in PPR Dynasty leagues. It seems that Andy Reid may have learned his lesson with Brian Westbrook and will carefully manage Shady's workload to keep him fresh all season long. He has gotten double-digit carries in every game except one this season and should continue to see 20+ touches as long as he stays healthy.  His ability to thus far play through nagging injuries shows his durability, and is a great sign for his future value. He does not have to churn out many tough yards on inside handoffs, keeping his wear and tear relatively low compared to other top backs. He may never be a truly elite fantasy option and he will not be the focal point of the Eagles offense, but the surrounding explosive talent will keep him producing just as long as he can stay on the field. Moving forward, Shady should be a Beastly asset in fantasy leagues just as long as the Eagles offensive scheme remains the same. He is never going to win a rushing title, but his combined yardage totals could approach 2,000 in his most productive seasons, along with 10+ TD's and 50+ catches. Versatile threat with still more upside in his game.

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