DeAngelo Williams

DeAngelo Williams is offically fantasy relevant...finally.  D. Williams spent his first two seasons in the league discretely establishing himself as a breakout candidate.  Entering 2008, those owners that saw his low ADP and subsequent potential to have a breakout season were rewarded with 1,518 rushing yards and 18 TD's (1,639 APY - 20 Total TD's), enough to earn top fantasy RB honors.  Fantasy players, especially Dynasty leaguers, who weren't monitoring Williams rise to stardom closely enough should now feel legitimatley frustrated.  His first two seasons in Carolina were relegated to backing up DeShaun Foster.  During his time as a backup, he took advantage of every one of his limited carries (132 carries per season), to steadily improve in all rushing statistical categories each season.  Williams also displayed an above average ability as a pass catcher out of backfield, further boosting his stock as an every down back.  DeAngelo Williams in not a perennial Top-5 fantasy RB, and a repeat of 2008 is highly unlikely.  At only 26 years old, though, there is massive Dynasty value here as he will remain a contributing member of one of the leagues most prolific rushing attacks, through at least 2011 when he becomes a free agent.  You want DeAngelo Williams on your Dynasty roster.  He's a Top-10 fantasy prospect for the next few years, with longevity on his side due to limited workload.  Here's why.

As we look toward the 2009 season, there is skepticisim regarding D. Williams value.  Much of this skepticisim is due to a shared backfield with one of the leagues premier young RB talents, Johnathon Stewart.  As Stewart enters his second season a full year removed from a turf toe surgery, he will likely improve on his already impressive rookie numbers, most noteably, double digit TD's.  Compared to Williams, Stewart is bigger, stronger and also has adequate pass catching ability.  Stewart will likely see most of the goal line touches in this RBBC, and the carry ratio between the two studs will move closer to 50/50 moving forward.  So is the presence of Johnathan Stewart a legitimate reason to downgrade the value of Deangelo Williams out of the Top-10?  I don't think so.

The Carolina Panthers love to rush the football.  This offensive scheme will not change under the eye of John Fox, where in 2008 the Panthers rushed the football 55% of all offensive plays (504 rushes compared to 414 pass attempts).  Similar to 2008, the Panthers will likely rush the ball approximately 500 times in 09'.  250 carries is a legitimate expectation for Williams this upcoming season.  At 5.0 ypc (he rushed at 5.5 ypc in 08'), thats an impressive 1,250 yards folks.  It's hard to imagine he cannot find the end zone at least 10 times as well.  Deangelo Williams is a big play guy.  In 2008, he was 2nd in the league (behind Adrian Peterson) with rushes over 20 yards (15) and shared the league high with rushes over 40 yards (5) with Steve Slaton.  This big play potential is not a fluke.  This is what happens when your team rushes the ball frequently with a backfield committe shared by a bruiser in Stewart and a smaller agile rusher in Williams.  The Panthers offensive line remains stout and more big plays can be expected from Williams in 2009.  Big Plays equal happy fantasy owners.  Another important statistic to note, was that of all the RB's with over 210 carries in 2008, only he and Ladanian Tomlinson did not record a fumble.  Good company.

In an age of RRBC, it's important to find fantasy RB's that take advantage of every touch of the football.  DeAngelo Williams has proven to be one of these players.  Don't feel like you missed out on Williams if an owner jumps on him with an early 1st round pick, but if you have the opportunity to land him near the end of the first round, you're drafting an RB you can count on. In a dynasty setting, there are going to be more than a few owners who would sell Williams below his actual value because they are concerned about a one year wonder situation. That is an opportunity you can capitalize on, because if he even puts up 80% of his 2008 numbers, he has cemented his status as a top flight RB.



Jonathan Stewart

Jonathan Stewart is a highly skilled, protypical, bell cow Running Back.  When the Panthers drafted Stewart #13 overall in 2008, they were not drafting a rusher to back-up DeAngelo Williams.  J. Stewart has a scary combination of size, speed and strength capable of busting a big play at any time, or pounding the rock deep into the 4th quarter.  As with most elite talents, and despite the presence of a talented D. Williams, it's only a  matter of time before he establishes himself as the lead back in Carolina no matter who he may be sharing a backfield with.  Prior to Williams 2008 breakout season, many expected Stewart to step into the starting role by mid-season.  Unfortunately, Stewart was slowed by toe surgery that hampered him for a good portion of training camp. Who knows what would have happened if he was fully healthy last summer, but he wasn't and DeAngelo Williams took the opportunity to steal the hearts of the fantasy world.  The name of the game with Stewart is patience, and it seems Dynasty owners will not have to wait much longer to reap the benefits of rostering this beastly talent.  Here's why.

2008 was a career season for D. Williams.  John Fox and the Carolina Panthers love to rush the football (6th most rushing attempts in the NFL in 2008), and were more than happy to take advantage of his hot hand by feeding him the ball roughly 60% of the Panthers rushing attempts.  With only 40% of the remaining rushing attempts, Stewart managed to break the 800 yard mark, average over 4.5 yards per carry and find the end zone 10 times in his rookie season.  No one in their right mind should be penciling Williams in for a repeat of last season, it is more a question of how far he will fall back to earth.  We can also expect Stewart to start to close the gap as his elite talent level steadily rises to the top of the Panthers depth chart. Don't be surprised to see the carry ratio similar to 2008, however their yard per carry average and TD totals will be much similar by fantasy seasons close.  2009 will be a step in the direction of domination for J. Stewart as we keep our Dynasty foresight fixed on the 2010 season.  In the meantime, Stewart is undoubtedly the most expensive handcuff in fantasy football this year, but his stand alone value is promising as well.  He is fully capable of being a weekly RB3/Flex option and could emerge into an RB2 should Williams even falter slightly.

In 2010, we should see a shift in the Panthers game plan with Jonathan Stewart leading the committee and becoming the more valuable fantasy RB. Within the offense, Williams style is more suited for being the speed compliment to Stewart's pounding force. Chances are good that DeAngelo Williams will not be re-signed by the Panthers following the 2010 season, leaving Jonathan Stewart as the Panthers featured back.  When this occurs, Stewart will be reaching the prime of this career at only 24 years old and 3 years experience with a limited workload.  Scary.  It is possible that the Panthers are already preparing for Williams' departure by drafting the speedy Mike Goodson in the fourth round out of Texas A&M.

If you are playing for this year and can only choose one of these guys, the pick is DeAngelo Williams. He is legit and has done a terrific job holding off Stewart thus far, but it is only a matter of time before The Daily Show's talent and physical ability shines through. He was drafted by Carolina to eventually become their franchise RB and while it might take a few more years than fantasy owners would like, it will happen and the wait will be well worth it. It's that kind of upside that make Stewart the more valuable dynasty RB. Williams is a stud in his own right, which is a testament to Stewart's true fantasy potential.

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