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 Nature Of The Beast
Posted by BeastOrBust on Wednesday, Jul 28 2010  -  about 2 years ago
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Dynasty Hype
In each Dynasty Hype article, we'll take a look at a handful of players that are receiving either extreme positive or negative hype and look at it from a Dynasty point of view. It is important in a Dynasty league to always be thinking of players value and situation, because they fluctuate constantly. As Flava Flav said, "Don't believe the hype" (well, most of the time anyway).

"Shonn Greene is a borderline first round pick"

Yes, he can move for a big guy and he is on a team that loves to rush the football but his love term prospects are not as high as many think...First off, SG has not hands.  He is also already 25 years old and has shown a propensity for injury (he came out of the AFC Championship game with an injury).  A couple things to think about 1) He has yet to carry the football for 20 times in a regular season game 2) Following two 20+ carry games in the 2009 playoffs it only took 10 carries to sideline him in the biggest game for the Jets in a Millenium.  Shonn Greene's value is high right now, and he will post big numbers this year regardless of LT's presence. Look to move him after this season or by the latest after 2011.  There is also legitimate justification to move him now should a big offer get placed in your lap.  We like his game, but we still have a sense of legit caution.

"Felix Jones is going to be the Cowboys main back this year"
If he doesn't get hurt, he might outproduce MBIII, however this is far from a lock. Felix Jones is an injury prone back that will do his best work with 15-20 touches per game.  He has shown to be super productive when utilized with a 5.9 ypc average in 2009 - his first full season with a legitimate workload.  FJ will always be part of a committee and will likely always give way to a short yard back in goal line situations.  Because of this, despite his impressive skill set he will not reach the fantasy elite.  We love his versatile skill set (but not as much as Jerry Jones evidently), but again if he is not on the field he is not winning you Dynasty Championships. Jones is in a great situation with the confidence in MBIII declining and it seems the Cowboys are reluctant to give Tashard Choice a larger role (this will likely change in 2010).  If you are a risk taker, keep Jones and hope he runs wild on the league with a bigger workload in 2010.  If he can stay healthy, he'll be very valuable this year. Keep in mind he is not elite and the second his value skyrockets his trade value will be equally as high...until he gets hurt again.  We would also like to note that early reports out of Dallas Camp are that he has weighed in at 218 lbs which is heavier than MBIII.  Pair his increased size with his athleticisim and there is some solid potential for Beastliness.  This backfield will be interesting to monitor however difficult to truly maximize value because of the hype train.

"Hakeem Nicks is a top breakout player in 2010"
While this statement is very true, the Dynasty owner of Hakeem Nicks has a whole lot more to be excited about than just his 2010 outlook.  Nicks showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie season despite missing time due to injury.  He also established himself as the Giants big play receiver for the long term future.  Situated beside a consistent Steve Smith and an evolving but decent player in Mario Manningham, there is legitimate talent surround Nicks to firmly establish himself as a playmaker that won't often find himself double teamed.  With the Giants passing the ball more often, we expect a breakout for Nicks this season.  If you are going to make a move for him, now is the time to do it.  His 2011 outlook entering his third season has Top-10 Dynasty WR written all over it.  Anquan Boldin....but better.

"Chad Henne is poised to be the breakout QB of 2010"
The addition of Brandon Marshall has the Chad Henne hype train rolling smoothly down the tracks...and rightly so.  We have all heard the same stats this offseason regarding the solid play he displayed in late 2009.  Impressive numbers for a player with such a few number of stats that included 3 - 300+ yard games with 2 - 50+ pass attempt games.  These types of passing numbers bode well for the confidence the Dolphins have in Henne.  He possess the necessary intangibles to be a solid fantasy QB.  Paired with a solid offensive line the formula for fantasy success is present.  We must remember however that Henne will be entering only his 2nd year as an unquestioned starter and must perform in a season of very high expectations.  While we are in favor of Henne's outlook for 2010 (and even more so for the future) Dynasty owners relying too much on Henne this season are somewhat rolling the dice with regard to consistency.  Despite the hype, the guaranteed growing pains he will experience situates him firmly at QB2 status in 2010.

"Ryan Mathews has found himself within the Top-10 of many Dynasty Running Back Rankings" 
Quite a bold ranking for a player that has yet to play an NFL game, let alone post Top-10 Fantasy numbers.  While we have him ranked not so far outside the Top-10 (#14 at the time the article was published), there is an inherent risk of relying on a Rookie for the necessary production to help you to a championship.  Mathews finds himself in an excellent situation in SD as the unquestioned lead back from the moment they drafted him with the #12 overall selection in the 2010 NFL Draft.  The Chargers are now an all-out passing team, however the question marks surrounding a Vincent Jackson suspension and/or holdout could place an even greater emphasis on the run.  We love Mathews as a prospect, we love his situation, but again, he's a Rookie. There is an element of risk here... and oh yeah...he has Top-10 RB value right now on the trade market.
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