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 Nature Of The Beast
Posted by BeastOrBust on Saturday, Oct 02 2010  -  about 2 years ago
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Dynasty Rankings Update: Early Season 2010
Fantasy values are a fluid situation, constantly changing and evolving. At BeastOrBust.com, we are constantly changing our rankings accordingly. Instead of reactionary rankings, though, we keep our pulse on the Dynasty market in order to stay at the forefront. As any successful Dynasty owner knows, you need to be thinking 3 moves ahead of your leaguemates. We are going to take a look at our newly updated Dynasty rankings by position and discuss some risers and fallers.

Quarterbacks


Behind every successful Dynasty team is an elite QB...while the saying is not true in every single league, the longevity of the truly elite QB's means that once you have one, you are locked in for multiple seasons of contention.

Not much change at the top of our QB list, as we wait for some younger players to break into the top 10. Two that have broken in recently are Number 9 Matt Stafford and Number 10 Josh Freeman. Both QB's possess Top 5 upside and could rise even higher with strong sophomore efforts. Rookie Sam Bradford only needed a few regular season games to convince us of his Beast potential. He immediately moves into our Top 15 and possesses elite upside. Mark Sanchez also seems to be developing nicely, rising to Number 17 on this list. He is still behind a number of other young QB's in terms of upside, but he is playing at a very high level right now. Our most notable riser, though, is Michael Vick, slotting in just behind Kevin Kolb at Number 20 on our QB list. He is just 30 years old and appears to have shaken off the prison rust. He could climb higher, depending on if he keeps the starting job and how he does against quality opponents. The extent of his injury will determine if Kevin Kolb has another chance to climb this list.

After the Top 20, however, things get a little muddy. We are looking at veterans on the downturn and also young, unproven talent. As a Dynasty owner, it is important to consider your team needs before deciding whether to roster a Jimmy Clausen or a Donovan McNabb.


Carson Palmer is still hovering around, right now in the 21st spot, even though his skills have clearly deteriorated in the past three years. He is a guy that a number of people still have some degree of faith in. Move off of him as your QB2 and bring in a younger, higher upside talent. Another player that has found himself trapped in the mid-20s is Alex Smith. He just cannot seem to seize his opportunities and take a convincing step forward. One player you won't see in many Top 30s is Josh Johnson of the Bucs. He is a high upside player that could be hitting the open market in the next 2 seasons. In QB heavy leagues, he makes an excellent stash.

From 31 - 50, you are looking at varying degrees of upside and opportunity. They are on rosters as back-ups, handcuffs or prospects.

Some players are waiting for an opportunity that will be coming soon, such as Number 32 Charlie Whitehurst and 41 Max Hall. Both of them should be given a chance to prove their worth later this season and could find themselves creeping up this list with a solid performance. Other players, such as Brian Brohm, Nate Davis and Curtis Painter are much more speculative picks that could end up off of this list when a new crop of QB's enter the league next April. But for right now, they are worth rostering in deep leagues just in case they pan out or get an opportunity to show what they can do.

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Running Backs

After only 4 weeks of the NFL season, we decided to award Chris Johnson with the #1 position in our Overall and RB Rankings....and rightly so.  Our former #1 player Maurice Jones-Drew is in a tough situation in Jacksonville and a workload that puts Adrian D. Peterson en route to 450 carries in 2010 has us concerned with longevity.  CJ2K has proven durable enough to be king of the mountain and remain so while he keeps posting 100 yard games on average days, this is where he will stay.  Rashard Mendenhall has moved up a spot as he has shown to run harder than he previously has in his career and also has become an able receiver.  He is in a great situation in Pittsburgh.  Steven Jackson has fallen outside of our Top-10.  He has taken a heavy beating in his career and durability will remain a concern.  How can you not love the Beastliness of SJax though and still deserves RB1 consideration.  Jamaal Charles has moved into our Top-10.  Charles is a true committee player that his hugely productive with limited touches.  He is still looking for more opportunity, with Thomas Jones stealing carries, but Jones career is obviously short lived at this point and he has fallen off our Top-50 RB Rankings list.  DeAngelo Williams remains one of the top Fantasy backs in the league, but his situation on a horrible Panthers team puts him in a situation non conducive to the consistency we are used to seeing from Williams.  Williams is a Free Agent in 2011 and will likely land himself a starting job in some other city.

Moving outside of the Top-10 there is an abundance of players with relatively the same value, each falling into the true committee role....The difficulty here is that any of these guys can post RB1 numbers in a given week, but consistency, opportunity or limited committee situations keep them from the elite class.

Knowshon Moreno is proving to be a good player, but not great - still living off is 2009 Draft Stock.  Seeing him sidelined isn't helping his stock either.  He is still a nice player, but is an RB you want as no more than a RB3/Flex option.  While Peyton Manning is at the helm, Colts RB are never going to be top prospects.  While they will remain productive players, they will also remain inconsistent.  Donald Brown was drafted to replace Joseph Addai, and that day is not that far off.  Addai will experience a huge drop off the moment he leaves Indy (2011) and as a result has already been dropping like a stone in our rankings.  We expected some big things from Felix Jones in 2010.  He added weight in the offseason to bring him to 220 lbs in an attempt to remain more durable.  At least for now, it doesn't seem Jones can carry the load as a lead back however owners must wait and see what he does if he ever in fact does get a bigger role in the Cowboys offense.  MBIII has shown a lack of burst/explosiveness and appears to be falling off the cliff.  We will likely see Tashard Choice and Felix Jones as the Cowboys RB's in 2011.  It looks as though the Texans have found their zone blocking RB in Arian Foster.  He is a nice player that could flirt with Beast status should the Texans decide to play a more balanced attack on a consistent basis.  We wouldn't be surprised to see him flirt with the Top-10 area by mid season but a wait and see approach will be implemented here for now..

And at the backend of the list, there is, well, opportunity......

Marshawn Lynch (aka Beast Mode) needed a change of scenery bad and he just got it. He could climb this list some if he makes an impression in Seattle.  Javon Ringer is taking advantage of every carry behind CJ2K.  Jerome Harrison is not taking advantage of anything.  LeGarrette Blount is a full grown monster in a backfield with underwheming/aging talent.  Benjarvis Green-Ellis is toting the rock at over 4.2 ypc and has taken the lead role on a Pats team that wants to throw it often. In limited touches, Mike Goodson is making a statement that he is the #2 RB in Carolina in 2011.

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Wide Receivers


The elite WR talent inside the Top 6 is all very close, with each one producing Beastly numbers on any given Sunday. They catch a ton of balls, score TD's and rack up huge receiving yards as the focal points of their respective offenses.


After a couple years just outside the Top 3, Brandon Marshall has made it in, pushing Andre Johnson down to Number 4. Marshall's fantasy upside might be as high as any WR given his excellent hands, penchant for hauling in 100 passes a season and his redzone skills. Miles Austin has made a steady climb up this list, now landing at Number 6. His talent is undeniable and he is a legitimate elite option. Two unproven receivers round out our Top 10, with Michael Crabtree and Dez Bryant at Numbers 9 and 10 respectively. Both players possess elite upside, but they will only move up this list when we see consistent Beastly production.

After the Top 10, we are seeing a wave of young talent enter the league and becoming fantasy relevant extremely fast. At the WR position, player values change rapidly and often outside of the Beasts. It is extremely important to think long term when assembling your WR corp.

Hakeem Nicks is a BeastOrBust favorite and could make his way inside the Top 10 by the next update. He is that good. Marques Colston finds himself falling to Number 15. He is too inconsistent to be a WR1 and although he still posts solid season statistics, Drew Brees spreads the ball around too much for one WR to dominate. Vincent Jackson is throwing away a year of his prime to prove a point, not smart. He is overrated in most Fantasy communities and should not be considered a true elite talent. Rookie Demaryius Thomas has all of the potential in the world and that alone gets him high on this list. He checks in at Number 20, which is large praise for a player who has yet to make much of an impact.  Be mindful of the Colts situation and the fact that Reggie Wayne, our Number 21 WR, might not be around next season in Indy. That makes our Number 22 and Number 27 players, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, much more attractive long term options. Rookie Mike Williams is already making an instant impact in Tampa Bay and should be climbing this list even higher as the season progresses.

When looking at the bottom 25 of our list, we are of the philosophy that Dynasty players are on the lookout for future Beasts.

The likes of Jerricho Cotchery and Santana Moss may be useful players at the moment, but they are not elite and will not sustain production much longer. We would much rather focus in on players with rising Dynasty value, such as the Cardinals undrafted rookie Stephen Williams at Number 64 and high upside raw talent Cartlon Mitchell at Number 71. They are not going to help your fantasy team this season, but in a year or two down the road, they could be the key player in a big trade or helping you by being in your starting lineup. Developmental WR selections get opportunities on a regular basis because of injuries and transactions, which makes having a few stashed away a smart idea.

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Tight Ends


A bunch of monstrous TE's that are producing line WR1's.  If you haven't yet invested in an elite TE talent, now is the time to do so.

Atop our TE's Rankings list is the clear favorite Jeremichael Finley.  Ridiculously talented and in an excellent situation, he is going to enjoy a long career of targets from Aaron Rodgers.  Vernon Davis is situated at our #2 position despite a below average offensive situation in SF.  His youth and similarities to Shannon Sharpe have us comfortably ranking him ahead of Antonio Gates whom is currently producing at career high levels.  We like Brent Celek with Kevin Kolb at the helm.  Dustin Keller rounds out the Top-5 and is the favorite weapon of an emerging Mark Sanchez.  The we anticipate the return of Santonio Holmes will boost his value as well. 

Outside the Top-5....

We have a rookie established at the #6 spot.  Jermaine Gresham has the upside of Jeremichael Finley and is already an often targeted receiver for Carson Palmer.  Zach Miller has been a BeastOrBust favorite for quite some time and is still the best value of any Top-10 TE with regard to acquisition price.  Aaron Hernende is the youngest player in the NFL, and has the potential to become Tom Brady's favorite big play target when Randy Moss leaves New England following the 2010 season without a Superbowl Ring.  At 6-2, he is more of a big WR than a TE.

 A great deal of parity between the 10 and 20 spots....

Dallas Clark is still the second read for Peyton Manning, but is starting to age.  Owen Daniels is slow to recover from his 3rd ACL injury, and could likely find his way out of Houston in 2011 to a less favorable passing situation.  Rob Gronkowski will likely steal TD grabs from Aaron Hernendez, and Tony Moeaki looks to have more upside than Dwayne Bowe and could become heavily targeted on an emerging Chiefs squad in the next few seasons.  Dennis Pitta is already 25 years old and while talented may emerge at an age where we can ever rank him inside the Top-12.  Marcedes Lewis is an interesting prospect that finally looks to be putting it all together.  With a weak receiving situaiton in Jacksonville, he could be a TD machine in the coming seasons, but wll never be an elite option.

An emergence of more and more Beastly TE's enter the NFL each season from the college ranks.  The importance of rostering a few of these playmaking talents is a nice way to add value and depth to a Dynasty Roster.

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