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| Nature Of The Beast |
After the big 3 the question marks start. Former undisputed No. 1, Chris Johnson, lands at No. 4. He needs a bounceback in a big way after a very inconsistent 2011. Longveity is a question mark at this point.
Matt Forte (5) went from a production by volume type in his first couple seasons to a true Beast in 2011. He's always been a strong pass catcher, but showed excellent burst this season on his way to 4.9 yards per carry. An injury cut his 2011 season short, but he should be in line for elite level production in the coming seasons.
Darren McFadden (6) has RB1 talent, but injuries continue to be a major concern. He's the definition of a high risk / high reward type player and you must have a back-up plan in place if you own him. He won't go much higher in the rankings until he proves he can play a healthy 16 game seasons.
Similar to Run DMC, Ryan Mathews (7) has explosive ability but has been nagged by injuries in his first two seasons. If Tolbert leaves town, Mathews should be in line for more catches and goal line carries, making him a candidate to enter the Top 5 quickly in 2012.
Staying on the field has not been a problem for Maurice Jones-Drew (8) who has missed just 3 games in 6 NFL seasons. He battled through a knee injury in 2010 and bounced back this year with close to 2,000 total yards and 11 TD's. He's approaching 1,500 carries and will enter his age 27 season, making him a prime sell candidate in Dynasty leagues. He likely has a few more Beastly seasons left, but each season with over 300 touches bring him closer to breaking down.
Rookie Mark Ingram (9) entered the league with an excellent scouting report for future fantasy success. Nothing has changed, although he had a mediocre first season and enters 2012 in a very crowded backfield. He's a hold unless someone is willing to overpay.
CJ Spiller (12) came on strong at the end of 2011 right after Fred Jackson (47) went down with a season-ending injury. While Fred Jax offers very limited upside, Spiller is a fantasy weapon in the making. While not a true feature back, 15-20 touches per game make him a high upside RB2 long term.
ACL tears hit 3 Top 10 Dynasty backs this season, with each one dropping out until proving healthy. Jamaal Charles (13) was on his way towards the top of this list when an ACL tear ended his season in Week 2. If the injury does not sap his explosiveness, Charles will climb back up. Adrian Peterson (15) had the ACL tear, enters his age 27 season and has more than 1,400 NFL carries, making him another sell candidate. Rashard Mendenhall (16) has had fantasy success in recent seasons because he's fed the ball early and often. His skillset is not elite, but at 25 years old next year he can be a solid RB2 if his recovery goes as planned.
Beanie Wells (14) continues to be an injury risk, but turned in a solid fantasy season with 10 TD's and over 1,000 yards for the 1st time in his career. He's still not a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield and might lose touches to a healthy Ryan Williams (38) , making him a risky RB2 at the moment. Still young enough to move up this list with a healthy year.
Two rookies, Demarco Murray (18) and Roy Helu (19), had impressive 2011 seasons and gave a glimpse into their potential fantasy futures. Neither profile as a true workhorse back, but are explosive playmakers that with major upside. Both come with risks and will have competition for carries in 2012.
Reggie Bush (26) came to South Beach and became a fantasy star after 5 teasing seasons in New Orleans. He ran as well as he ever has in between the tackles and rushed for over 1,000 yards for the 1st time. There is still some upside here as his pass catching ability has not been fully tapped into, but also significant downside. Daniel Thomas (21) was plagued by nagging injuries and ineffectiveness, but offers complete back RB2 upside. If he asserts himself, he could take over as the lead back sometime in 2012.
Mike Bush (23) proved his worth as Darren McFadden's handcuff. Should he find himself with a starting job in a new uniform, he has short term RB2 upside at age 28. Most likely, though, he'll be back with the Raiders as a power compliment to the oft-injured McFadden.
Kendall Hunter (24) is a name to watch next season as Frank Gore (22) starts to break down. His fantasy skillset is very intriguing and he's at the very least a high-upside handcuff for one or two more seasons.
Marshawn Lynch (31) had a Beast Mode season with over 1,400 total yards and 13 TD's. Keep in mind it was a contract year and he had been pedestrian in the previous two seasons. Buyer beware of this classic production by volume back. Short term upside is high however should Seattle not draft or sign another RB.
Darren Sproles (32) had an amazing fantasy season and remains a high upside RB2/3 for the next few seasons, especially with Sean Payton and Drew Brees in New Orleans. He's an offseason sell, though, if someone believes he's a long term answer.
Montario Hardesty (33) could see more opportunities in 2012 if Peyton Hillis (25) departs, but he needs to stay healthy and look more than pedestrian this summer.
Shonn Greene (34)...hope you didn't believe the hype.
What to make of Donald Brown (38)? After showing absolutely nothing in 2 seasons, he looked slightly better than average for most of 2011. There is opportunity for him to move up this list quickly if he can show consistency next year.
Felix Jones (41)...see Greene, Shonn.
Outside of Stevan Ridley (48), the rest of this list is made up of average and/or aging talent that could be off this list and out of the league in the next couple seasons.
There are a number of high upside fantasy backs entering the 2012 NFL Draft, starting with Trent Richardson, an elite fantasy prospect. Once the NFL Draft takes place, he'll make his debut on this list, along with a handful of his classmates. Check back often as we are always making sure our Dynasty rankings reflect the true short term value and long term upside of a given player. If you missed it, here's our Dynasty Rankings Update for the QB position. We'll be going through our rankings by position in the coming weeks...coming up next are the Tight Ends!