Nature Of The Beast

A player's fantasy value can change in an instant. It can effect draft stock, trade value and roster moves for thousands of fantasy owners. Two years ago, undrafted rookie Arian Foster was only relevant in Dynasty leagues, and even there he was more of a flier because of his solid collegiate resume at Tennessee. Last season after Ben Tate's injury, he rose to a mid-round sleeper. By October, he had established himself as one of the premier running backs in the league on his way to a top fantasy finish. In this article, we'll take a look at what you can expect from a number of over and undervalued fantasy players this season and in the future.

Overvalued

Peyton Hillis
It took one breakout season and thousands of votes, but 1,700 yards and 13 TD’s later, Peyton Hillis landed on the almighty Madden 12 cover for the 2011 season. Along with that honor comes a very high fantasy draft projection as a 2nd round pick. It is true that he put up AP and Chris Johnson stats up last year, but repeating those numbers again seem like a stretch. He received 270 carries last year compared to 81 he had the last two seasons combined, which is a red flag because he wore down during the season's 2nd half. Being the bruising RB Hillis is known, a rough 16 game schedule is concerning and brings health concerns. Let's remember that Peyton was held out of the end zone in the final 5 games last season after defenses figured him out, or he just plain wore out. Plus, with Montario Hardesty healthy this season you can expect him to get more work and possibly take the committee lead in time. Nonetheless, Hillis is a solid RB2/3 option as far as Dynasty value goes, because Cleveland’s number one option on offense is to run the ball...just don't expect to see 2010 numbers again.

Antonio Gates
Yes, Antonio Gates is one of the top TE’s in the game fantasy wise and Dynasty wise, but the lingering toe and ankle injuries are a growing concern. With the average projection of Gates being drafted in the 3rd/4th round this year, it seems a little high for an injury prone tight end. We all know Gates is a fantasy Beast when he is healthy, but the talent pool at TE is very deep this year. Jermichael Finley, Vernon Davis, and Dallas Clark are all lurking right behind him, and potential breakouts like Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook, Jermaine Gresham, Lance Kendricks, Ed Dickson and Evan Moore are making it hard to take Gates real early in any draft when you can get better value at that position in the later rounds. As far as dynasty value goes, Gates has at least 2-3 more years of top tier fantasy production in him, so if he slips to 5 or 6th round he becomes worth the risks.

Brandon Lloyd
77 receptions 1,448 receiving yards and 11 TD’s is a normal stat line for Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald type, but when it's coming from Brandon Lloyd in 2010 it caught everybody’s eye. Easily a top 5 WR last year week in and week out, it's widely considered unlikely he'll duplicate those numbers this season. That's especially true considering his breakout came in his 8th NFL season! He is a great talent but being drafted regularly in the 4th round, as a potential WR1 is a huge risk. He is a solid WR2 option in any format since he will be the number 1 option in Denver. Being 30 years old and blossoming in his 8th year hurts his dynasty value, making him a prime sell high candidate. If you can't get fair value in return, ride it out, but just keep in mind there will be more bumps than last year.

Felix Jones
With Marion Barber now in Chicago, the spotlight will be on Felix Jones to carry a big load this year for “America’s Team”. His big play ability and breakout speed make him a nice fantasy option for a high-powered Dallas offense. Even with Barber gone, though, seeing Jones go in the 4th/5th round in fantasy drafts is a little dicey given that he has never rushed for over 1,000 yards or even gotten into the end zone more than 3 times in a single season. And that is not to mention the questions about being able to stay healthy and handle a starter's workload. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and is a playmaker, but with the question marks circling around Dallas’s O-line, it seems safe to say that someone like Ahmad Bradshaw would be a safer pick instead. Due to Felix’s inconsistency and injury history his dynasty value is more of an RB3/Flex to open the fantasy season. 2011 will be a show and prove season.

Arian Foster
The Twitpic heard round the world sunk any fantasy owner’s dream of a championship when Arian hurt his hamstring. The biggest breakout of 2010 is projected as the top 3 pick in most fantasy drafts after a season where he outperformed AP, MJD and CJ by a large margin. Foster is a clear RB1 fantasy wise and should produce top 10 numbers for the next few seasons. He faces an uphill battle out of the box though with a hamstring injury (which is an aggrevation of a previous injury) Could he repeat his Beastly 2010 numbers? Yes, he has the skillset necessary and the talent around him, but it's not likely. He is a nice mid 1st round pickup for anyone, but being valued over MJD, AP, CJ and Ray Rice is quite generous. Hamstring injuries are touchy and can linger throughout a whole season if it does not heal correctly. Be cautious with Foster to start the season and see how this injury plays out, but if someone still wants to pay through the nose, you should think long and hard about it. 

Undervalued

Tim Hightower
Tim Hightower got traded out of a then-crowded Cardinals backfield into a similar situation in Washington. A few weeks later, though, he looks very impressive in Mike Shannahan’s offensive scheme during the preseason. Even with a crowded backfield, it is clear he will get his carries, and likely the ever important work in the red zone.  Being the Cardinals short yardage back for the past 3 years, he compiled 23 TD’s, 15 more than highly touted Felix Jones has had in his 3 year career. This is the same scheme that led to the success of Terrell Davis and Arian Foster, so Tim has a real shot at big fantasy success this season. He is worth taking a shot on in middle to later rounds. Given his strong preseason, he has seen his average draft position rise substantially, but can still be acquired at solid value in most leagues. Dynasty wise, Tim is no more than a RB3/Flex at the moment, but given a bigger role/performance he can jump into RB2 territory.

Eli Manning

Quietly Eli Manning has put up top 10 fantasy numbers each of the past two years, throwing for over 4,000 yards and more than 27 TD’s in each season. For some reason, he still gets overlooked in drafts for higher upside players like Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, and Matthew Stafford. The INT’s are a problem, but now with a young and very talented WR core hopefully he can decrease those numbers (39 INT’s last two seasons). Eli can flourish despite the loss of the “other” Steve Smith and Kevin Boss, but someone outside of Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham is going to need to step up. Eli has remained healthy throughout his career and since 2005 has thrown for more that 3,000 yards and over 20 TD’s each season. It is a safe bet to say that Eli is a rock solid QB2 Dynasty wise, and a great value in any fantasy draft's later rounds.

Jacoby Ford

The Raiders had a few bright spots last season and Jacoby Ford was one of them, making a name on Special Teams taking back 3 kickoffs to the other end zone. Reminiscent of Carolina's Steve Smith, Ford’s huge playmaking ability makes him Oakland’s top receiving option going into the season.  Even though he only grabbed 25 balls and 470 yards for 2 TD’s, he averaged a very nice 18.8 yards per catch. He has received some well-deserved sleeper hype this summer and has potential to become a WR2 if he develops fully. There is opportunity in Oakland, since they lost top receiver in Zach Miller to Seattle.  Ford should easily outperform his average draft stock which is in late rounds (8th, 9th, or 10th in most drafts) He's a sought after dynasty prospect given this is his second year and has gazelle like speed in the open field.

Davone Bess

If we told you that Davone Bess would catch more TD passes last year than teammate Brandon Marshall, you would have given us 100 to 1 odds. With Marshall getting most of the attention from opposing defenses, though, Bess got the leftovers and had a nice season with 79 catches 820 yards and 5 TD’s. He was also targeted by Dolphins signal callers 127 times, only 20 less than Marshall. The Slot machine's average draft position is 14th round or even undrafted, but he makes a very nice WR3/Flex play each week, especially if you get a half or full point per reception. Do not worry about inconsistency here since Bess managed to catch at least 5 balls in 11 of the 16 games last season. Whether PPR or not, Bess is a solid bench receiver that can start in a pinch. He lacks big time upside, but for his current price tag, he's a bargain.

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