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| Nature Of The Beast |
Michael Vick went down this weekend with an apparent rib/chest/collarbone injury. The severity of the injury is not yet known, but he is reportedly very sore with potentially cracked rib cartilage. At the time of the injury, Vick was one of the most sought after Fantasy Prospects following an MVP pace through 2.5 weeks. Behind a horrible Eagles O-Line, an athletic Vick give the Eagles a better chance than Kevin Kolb to utilize the explosive offensive weapons on the Eagles roster while also hiding a horrible offensive line. While Vick's athleticism did a great job to hide the Eagles weakness, his propensity to take off running, while a nice fantasy asset, also puts him at a serious risk of injury. Kolb stepped in with decent numbers in Week 4, but didn't overly impress putting on a check down clinic while being pressured on every pass play. While Vick misses time, check down options LeSean McCoy and Brent Celek became relevant again and remain the biggest risers on the Eagles roster. Deep route options DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin were rendered ineffective and each hope Vick finds his way back to the field soon. The face of the Eagles offense will once again change should Vick miss significant time as the O-Line has shown absolutely no improvement through 4-weeks of the season. The Eagles cakewalk early season schedule gets tougher moving forward. The QB controversy grows by the day, and we are even hearing rumors of Jeff Garcia being on the Eagles radar. This is a volatile situation. Dynasty League players should definitely be having discussions however to see if Vick can be had on the cheap. With about one-fifth of the league currently searching for a legit starting QB, Vick is likely to land a starting role somewhere next season.
Through 4 games, guess which QB leads the league in passing yardage (1,419)? Yes, Kyle Orton. This is his second week discussed in our recap article and for good reason. The Broncos rushing attack is irrelevant, evidenced by Laurence Maroney and Correll Buckhalter toting the rock a mere 17 times for 9 yards in yesterday's game. Orton has chucked it 50+ times the last two weeks and will likely continue throw nearly as often moving forward unless a more balanced attack can be incorporated into the Broncos gameplan. Not likely. McDaniels loves developing QB's and an offensive attacked rooted in the passing game, and we anticipate continued success for a team looking very similar to productive Patriots teams of past. At this point, Kyle Orton can be comfortably started as a QB1 and it will be interesting to reevaluate at the seasons mid-point, where with continued success, it will be easier to establish him as one of the leagues Top Fantasy QB's. The Broncos would be wise to try and reach the 25 rush mark to prevent defenses from entirely playing the run.
The Houston Texans are running a more balanced offensive attack and the Fantasy value of Matt Schaub has taken a hit. Let's not forget here that Andre Johnson was sidelined this weekend, coming off his 2010 breakout. Jacoby Jones was also hindered by a calf injury in Week 4 which also played a role in the mediocre passing numbers for Schaub. However, Schaub owners are frustrated, and now is the time to start sending feelers to his current owners. See where they stand, and specifically inquire if hey have become overly frustrated with the presence of Arian Foster cutting into his passing beastliness. Andre Johnson's injury can ba anothe angle taken if trying to swindle him from another owner. Schaub is still a highly rated fantasy QB that is going to post some serious numbers. Take advantage of the frustrated owner, however don't overpay as his Dynasty longevity is not that impressive in our minds.
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Running Backs
Peyton Hillis was seldom used last season in Denver by Josh McDaniels. Coming out of college, many saw him as nothign more than a fullback prospect. He is a tough inside runner and has soft, reliable hands out of the backfield, though. After a trade to the Browns this summer and a season ending injury to promising rookie Montario Hardesty, Hillis has now scored double digit fantasy points in every game this season. He has also scored one touchdown in every game this season. Big names such as Chris Johnson, Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson can’t say they have accomplished that this year. The past two weeks he has gotten 22 and 27 carries, turning Jerome Harrison into an afterthought at the moment. Hillis has become a must start player for the foreseeable future. With his production this year he has gone from undrafted / free agent pick-up to a potential RB2 for the rest of the year. His Dynasty value is still very much shaky though. If he continues to establish himself and produce, he'll continue to get the ball and rise in our Dynasty rankings. But we need to see more before that happens, a lot more. If you receive an offer for him that is on par with a young RB2, consider making the move.
If you are in a Dynasty league, it is time to buy low on Jonathan Stewart. He had a big TD catch and run to salvage his Week 4 performance, but it’s clear that this is not going to be a productive fantasy season for him unless DeAngelo Williams gets hurt (or traded, although that is very unlikely). He has only carried the ball 28 times all year and his owners were counting on him for much more after the Beastly finish he had to the 2009 season. Most were expecting at least a 60/40 split, but closer to 50/50. So far, though, DeAngelo Williams has received double the carries Stewart has and is clearly the No. 1 back for the team right now. It also doesn't help that the Panthers are a Fantasy disaster right now. Going into Week 4 Carolina was 31st in total offense. They have been trailing for most of the season; and when you’re playing catch up you tend to throw the ball not run it. Plus, they are starting a rookie QB and their WR1 just got hurt. There is clear evidence that owners are going to have to take a long look at whether or not they are going to start Stewart every week and that is where you can capitolize. Owners that were relying on The Daily Show are nervous and willing to move him for a piece that can help them win now. Take advantage.
He has found the fountain of youth. It’s becoming clear that LaDainian Tomlinson is the RB with the most value on the Jets right now. Shonn Greene was widely thought to be clearly ahead of LT2, who looked to be all but finished after last season. Through four weeks, he has gotten more carries than Greene and has produced with those carries. Greene has yet to find the end zone this season. LT2 looked vintage this week against the Bills, rattling off 133 rushing yards and 2 TD's. With the uncertainty of Sanchez on a weekly basis the Jets need a strong running game. Can LT2 keep this up for the entire season? He could, but the more important question is "Do you want to have to count on it?" If you can't get good value for him in your Dynasty league, that answer is yes, you have no other options because you don't want to give him away for nothing. Explore trade options, though, because he is giving you a window of opportunity that should have passed a couple years ago. Maybe the Shonn Greene owner in your league will be interested.---------------
Wide Receivers
Hope you had your popcorn in hand. Terrell Owens put on a Batman type of game dropping 10 catches for 222 yards and a TD in Week 4. He surpassed his season totals of 152 yards in this game and is currently one of the leagues top statistical performers through the one-quarter mark. Sell Now! TO is getting old and has almost zero Dynasty value. Ocho was doubled the whole game, and TO took advantage of a nice matchup vs. the Browns secondary. In his old age, we can still expect Owens to post one or two monster games per season however a statistical anomaly won't help you win fantasy championships. Move him immediately while there is value to be had. Use the fact that he has another cake matchup vs. the Bucs in Week 5 as a prime selling point.
Marques Colston is way to0 inconsistent to be considered a WR1. Week 4 was another disappointing outing for the Saints starting X-Receiver. Colston has 18 catches on the season and has yet to find the end zone. Meanwhile, Drew Brees continues to spread the ball around paying special attention to Lance Moore and Devery Henderson while teams focus their efforts on shutting down Colston. This trend will remain consistent as spreading the wealth is the Saints way. Coltson will get his, and it is only a matter of time before Bree's decides to start throwing it his way, but he's going to be tough to count on week-to-week. With his value at a career low right now, Colston is worth hanging on to until he posts a 130 yard 2 TD perfromance which should come in the coming weeks. Contending teams may want to consider moving him for a more consistent prospect if the price is right.
We stated heavily this previous offseason that the 2010 preseason was the last opportunity to land Hakeem Nicks at a reasonable price. Nicks busted out in Week 1 with a 3 TD effort, and our statement was validated as we saw his Dynasty Value subsequently skyrocket. Week 2 was followed by a single TD effort to further solidify his value. So, here we are in Week 4, the Giants offense looks terrible, and we would like to revisit the original topic of trying to land Nicks. A struggling Giants offense has given you one last chance to land Hakeem Nicks at a reasonable price. Hakeem Nicks had a quiet game in Week 4 despite going for over 100 receiving yards. What we have seen from Nicks is his overly impressive route running and instincts. Nicks has shown an ability to feel out defenders when closing on his routes, putting him in position to make an immediate juke move the moment he receives the football. As he continues to evolve as a receiver this kind of awareness, paired with a ridiculous Run-after the Catch ability will skyrocket Nicks into the top tier of WR talent. The Giants offense is struggling right now and this is likely the very last time Nick's immense upside will be hidden by a lackluster Giants offensive unit. Make a move now, and consider yourself lucky if you can land this emerging Beast.
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Tight Ends
Antonio Gates has been an absolute beast this year and is the unquestioned number 1 TE in Fantasy Football right now. Who is number 2? The popular answer would be Dallas Clark or maybe even Jermichael Finley. By the numbers, though, the answer is Dustin Keller. He has now had three really strong games in a row. He has scored two touchdowns in each of the past two games and is clearly Mark Sanchez's most reliable target . He is turning into a Beast at a stacked tight end position. Can he keep up this torrid pace? Yes, the TD's will probably fall off a bit, but he is a legit force. Santonio Holmes is coming back and could take some targets away from Keller, but the talent has always been there. He has taken the next step this year and is now a reliable Top 5 option at the position in fantasy leagues, which is where he finds himself in our updated Dynasty TE rankings.
We recognized Zach Miller as a breakout candidate this offseason. With the addition of Jason Campbell, Miller was actually going to have a solid QB throwing him the ball. Good thing Bruce Gradkowski is also big fan of Zach Miller. In Jason Campbell’s two starts this year Miller has eight fantasy points combined, which is no surprise because the Rainders could not move the ball with Campbell under center. In Gradkowski’s starts Miller has 30 points combined, even more in PPR leagues. He is Gradkowski’s favorite target and it looks like he has the opportunity to produce TE1 numbers this year. In your Dynasty league, his value just went up after his 11 catch, 122 yard, 1 TD performance on Sunday, but someone might be looking to sell high. That is your cue.
Marcedes Lewis is having a quietly strong season in 2010. The 6'6", 275 lb. specimen has never seemed to put it all together after being drafted in the 1st round back in 2006. Through four games, Lewis has already set a career high in touchdown passes. He has really only had one dud game so far, with three catches for 15 yards in Week 3. In every other week, he has at least one TD or 70 yards. Even more impressively, perhaps, is that he has made Dynasty Digging Prospect Zach Miller (the other one) a non-factor this season. Not bad for a waiver wire or speculative pick. Marcedes is a big red zone target for David Garrard or whatever QB the Jaguars choose to use this season. The risk with Lewis is that he is usually reliant on the touchdowns to be productive, similar to a Visante Shiancoe type. He needs to be taken more serious in deep leagues and is worth a roster spot if you have the room. TE2 upside is nothing to sneeze at.