Jason Campbell - Superstar? As a 2005 first round draft pick out of Auburn, Jason Campbell was expected to be the face of the Redskins franchise by now. But three unspectacular seasons later, Washington seems ready to part ways with him. As a dynasty owner, should you do the same? Or is now the time to buy low on Jason Campbell and hope he can still put it all together?



Beast

Jason Campbell is the ideal QB2 or QB3 in a dynasty league, a high upside player that everyone has forgotten about as they scramble to pick up shinier, newer toys. He is a 6'5", 230 lb. physical specimen with all of the talents to be a studly NFL quarterback. He just has not put it all together yet, taking a few small steps forward rather than the leap required to reach #1 QB status.  The good news for Campbell is 2009 will be the first season of his career where he will not be learning a new offense. While he is not an ideal fit for Jim Zorn's West Coast style offense, his comfort level should lead to a marked improvement in his fantasy numbers in 2009. Taking a look at his 2008 numbers, (with the exception of a very low 13 TD passes), his fantasy numbers were actually quite solid.  A handful more TD's and everyone would be talking about a breakthrough candidate.

Campbell has shown ability in his first three seasons, with consistent improvements in statistical categories that include playing time, completition percentage, touchdown output and passing yards. Clearly he has shown that he is fully capable of taking his game to the next level when situated in a stable environment.  2008 was characterized by a situation where he and the Redskins were on the right track in Weeks 1-8 followed by an unexpected meltdown on the back end.  The 2009 offseason became even more difficult a situation for Campbell when Washington flirted with the idea of trading for Jay Cutler or drafting Mark Sanchez.  This was likely a strategy by the Skins to light a fire for Campbell in 2009, one that will likely pay dividends for the Redskins. The way Campbell handled that situation is a testament to his character, and now he has the added incentive of a huge chip on his shoulder.

The skillset is there, the talent is as well. His completition percentage is very good, but he needs to improve his decision making and start taking more risks downfield. The Redskin offense is built around Clinton Portis, but for Jason Campbell to be the best player he can, there needs to be a shift in that philosophy. That appears unlikely in Washington however as upper management has pretty much lost faith in his above average talent.  Dynasty owners currently feel the same way, making Campbell an ideal low risk / high reward acquisition for your dynasty team.  Campbell is a free agent after this season and it does not appear that he will be back for the 2010 season in Washington. If he steps up this year and puts it together, he will be in line for a lucrative long-term deal from another team in need of a franchise QB.  Acquire him now, on the cheap and reap the benefits of his services in a situation more suited to his skill set.

Bust

It's hard for us to be convinced about Jason Campbell's future. In his two seasons as a starter, he has increased his yardage and TD totals, while decreasing his interceptions.  So that's a positive thing right?  Sure.  The problem here is we have yet to see anything spectacular from the former first round draft pick (#25 overall).  2008 was characterized by a mediocre 13 TD's in 506 pass attemps.  Not too impressive in a Jim Zorn west-coast offense.  

Lets give him the benefit of the doubt and say that his development has been delayed as a result of the multiple offensive systems he has been forced to learn over the last 3 seasons.  So this adversity should make him a more polished QB in due time - eventually growing into a solid fantasy QB right?  The more likely senario is that Jason Campbell is becoming an average talent defined as a product of his learning environment.  Two final points to address here: 1) Campbell has little receiving help in Washington and 2) an aging Clinton Portis no longer brings fear to NFL defenses the way he once had.  As a result teams will dare Cambell to throw the ball into stacked coverages.  Not a good sign.

There is no question that the physical tools are there, but that does not always equate to success.  He is a smart player that understands the game.  Until he shows us fantasy numbers that are better than 3,300 yards and 12-15 TD's, I'm gonna trend more and more toward the Bust argument with each passing season.  If Cambell is your #1 QB, you have hopefully already started making the appropriate contigency plans.  We still like his skill set however, and if you have the room  to hold on to him for another season, do so, then trade him away next offseason as known value - 3,300 yard, 15 TD, #2 Fantasy QB.

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