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 Nature Of The Beast
Posted by BeastOrBust on Monday, Sep 27 2010  -  about 2 years ago
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Kyle Orton QB1...Really? Week 3 Fantasy Recap
Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton is establishing himself as part of fantasy football QB1 company.  In a career passing performance which surpassed 475+ yards this weekend vs. the Colts he was Drew Brees'esqe finding 9 different receivers throughout the ballgame.  Orton clearly has a solid grasp of the Josh McDaniels offense which is quite similar to the throw first and often Patriots offense from which McDaniels came from.  The Broncos are still not a very good football team which will result in close contests from week to week, and subsequently a reliance on the passing game.  Orton has shown to get nicked up in the past, so that is a concern, but his protection looked good against a solid front-4 for the Colts.  Continue to start Orton in deeper or two QB leagues.  He will still obviously be tough to start over the more noteable QB1 options, but if you are lucky enough to have Orton for bye week fillers or as a matchup solution you are in good shape.  Especially if he continues to chuck it 35+ times per week as the Broncos running game looks poor. 

Michael Vick is ridiculously good.  At least against mediocre opponents. Andy Reid is looking like a genius right now, but before Vick is crowned as a top fantasy QB again, he'll need to prove it against a few tough defenses first. You play the schedule you are given, and early returns are obviously very encouraging. He has shown the speed and the arm that made him a fantasy stud, albeit an inconsistent one, in the past. Vick has the weapons and playcalling mentality in Philly to keep up his current pace and end the season inside the Top 10 fantasy scorers. If you are getting proven, QB young talent in return, though, consider making a move. On a related note, keep an eye on Kevin Kolb in your league, because you could buy low if the same owner does not own Vick. He could be starting possibly later this year or by next season, either in Philly or with another team.

Carson Palmer has a lot of weapons on his side but it isn't translating into a lot of fantasy value. For the past two weeks Palmer has thrown for under 200 yards and in Week 3 he threw 2 interceptions. Palmer is starting to cause owners concern whether he can turn it around, as if the past two seasons of underwhelming performances was not enough.  He has been in a decline the last few years with the big game occassionally sprinkled in to keep his owners blinded and still believing.  His Week 1 numbers came in hardcore garbage time and Weeks 2 and 3 have been ugly. There are still owners out there that think he can rebound and be that QB1 again. If you own Palmer, seek out this owner immediately and make a move for an up and coming QB prospect or as part of a package for an upgrade. You will be glad you did.

It's time to start really feeling badly for Alex Smith.  We wanted to believe, we really did, but with the Monday morning firing of offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye, it would appear that the only sense of consistency Smith has experienced in his mediocre career has now been shipped out of San Fran.  Preseason expectations for a breakout year for Smith seemed to come to a reality in Week 2 when Smith posted an impressive stat line and a solid late game 2:00-Drill vs the Saints.   

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Running Backs

Maurice Jones-Drew was a consensus Top 3 pick this year across the board in re-draft leagues and obviously one of the most sought after players in Dynasty leagues. His durability and nose for the endzone have made him a top producing fantasy player since he entered the league. The offseason knee "injury" was a minor red flag, but the Jaguars mediocre offense could be more of a reason for his early season struggles. Dating back to last season, though, MJD has only one 100 yard rushing game in his last 10 games and only 4 TD's within that same timeframe. MJD has proven to be a workhorse, but if he wears down at the end of this season, the question will start to arise as to whether he would be more effective splitting carries. Right now, he is just not playing like the centerpiece of your lineup. Give him some time to get on track and remember the terrible offense around him is not helping, but you should no longer consider him an untouchable type of player. Also, grab or trade for Rashad Jennings just to be safe.

The offseason hype machine on Shonn Greene had him as a legit first round pick this summer. Coming off of a very strong playoff performance and the release of Thomas Jones, it was easy to see Greene as a possible RB2, but the thought of him as an instant Beast seemed to be jumping the gun a bit. He is not an asset in the passing game and only scored 2 TD's in the regular season last year. Then, the Jets signed Ladanian Tomlinson, who looked like he had very little in the tank. Not many people expected him to be a serious threat to Greene's touches, but LT2 has certainly looked like he found the fountain of youth so far this season. He is clearly having a huge impact on Greene's numbers and should continue to do so. Greene is already 25 years old in just his 2nd season, but he could definitely have a few "Michael Turner" type seasons in him. His value right now is low, so if you own him, you might want to ride him out and hope LT2 starts to decline, which will happen. The payoff could be 20+ carries a game and the always valuable goal line looks just in time for your league's fantasy playoffs. Just make sure you are managing your expectations, because he is not a Dynasty RB1 to build around, but more of a solid RB2 or 3.

Peyton Hillis was pigeon-holed as a fullback coming out of college, where he blocked for Darren McFadden and Felix Jones at Arkansas. He is certainly an asset in the running and receiving game when called upon as an RB. He was seldom used by Josh McDaniels in 2009 and traded this offseason to the Browns. With the explosion of Jerome Harrison during the last half of the season, Hillis was an afterthought. He got buried even further when the Browns drafted touted RB Montario Hardesty. That doesn't even mention last year's sixth rounder, James Davis, who was the talk of training camp in 2009. Well, Hardesty tore his ACL and Harrison has been underwhelming and injuried, not able to carve out a significant role for himself. Enter Peyton Hillis, who has shown a workmanlike attitude and produced each and every game. Last week, he got 22 carries and responded with 144 yards (6.5 YPC) and a TD, giving him one in each of his first three games. Make no mistake, Hillis is not an RB1 or even RB2 in Dynasty leagues just yet. It is tough to see him as a long term solution, but in the short term, he will continue to get his work and be a reliable asset. 

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Wide Receivers

While Mike Vick and DeSean Jackson have been posting the big stat lines in Philly over the last two weeks, it has been Jeremy Maclin that has found the end zone 3 times over the last 2 games.  DJax has never been much of a red zone threat, with most of his games coming on the big play - open field style.  Maclin has shown an evolving skill set with better route running ability and will benefit while DJax remains a dangerous threat on every play.  We have been touting Maclin as a breakout candidate for some time now and he seems to be proving his worth on a weekly basis.  

Lance Moore
looks as though he may once again be fantasy relevant.  Pick him up on waivers this week if he is available! Career high 149 yards and 2 TD's this Sunday in the loss, including an 80 yard TD catch from Brees. With Reggie Bush out, Moore will see increased playing time and have the chance to have a big year. He also got more targets (7) than the #1 WR Colston did with 4. In 2008 Moore had a breakout year when Bush was out with an injury as well with 928 yards and 10 TD's, so pay close attention here, and don't be surprised if he becomes a Brees favorite in the coming weeks.

Austin Collie is establishing himself as one of the better slot receivers in the league.  He catches everything thrown his way, and his percise route running is an assett Peyton Manning will take advantage of often.  Unlike many other slot recievers in the league, Collie looks like a threat to post double digit TD's in any given year.  Collie scored 7 TD's in his rookie season and he has already posted 4 TD's through 3 games in 2010.  His Week 3 stat line of 12 catches and 171 yards isn't going to happen every week, however he has proven he has the skills to be the go to guy in situations. Especially in situations where any member of the Colts receiving corps may miss time, not to mention that Reggie Wayne may not be a member of the Colts in 2011.  The Colts travel to the Jags next week, so his short term upside is promising, and depending on how Peyton decides to utilize him going forward, he has Top-15 WR potential in 2010.

Brandon Lloyd?  Really?  His Week 3 performance was a career high with 169 yards and a beautiful TD reception on a deep ball.  He also showed some nifty moves in the open field making everyboy wonder where this guy has always been.  Brandon connects well with Kyle Orton as they were teammates in Chicago.  He still has to share a field with Jabar Gaffney and the rookie Demaryius Thomas - both of whom have shown some promise in the Broncos offense - but with 339 receiving yards through 3 weeks, it is hard to not see him get the ball a lot in the coming weeks.   As D. Thomas continues to develop during the season, Lloyd will likely be relied upon to to be the big play guy.  We still want to see more however, cause like yourself we are having trouble believing that Brandon Lloyd is one of the early season WR wonders.

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Tight Ends

Tony Moeaki
made one of the most spectacular catches of the week.  Now, while one amazing catch will not earn him Beast status, Moeaki has shown some nice playmaking skills in a relatively inept KC offense.  He has only been averaging 4 catches per week, but considering the benign offensive unit in KC led by Matt Cassel, he has been the Chiefs most reliable playmaker.  2 TD's through 3 Weeks is something worth keeping an eye on, and definitely worth a roster spot if you are in need of TE depth with upside. Injuries have hampered him throughout his career, but a healthy Moeaki could be a TE1 in the near future.

Brent Celek was a breakout player in 2009 and bigger things were in store for 2010. Being the roommate and favorite target of new QB Kevin Kolb had Celek being drafted as a Top 5 TE, as he should have. The switch to Mike Vick at QB, though, has not been kind to Celek. He has struggled to make a fantasy impact and that is a trend that could continue. Vick looks deep to DeSean Jackson and has the arm capable of hitting him. Plus, he has looked towards 2nd year stallion Jeremy Maclin in redzone situations thus far. Celek is an ideal buy low if you are thinking about 2011 and beyond. This year, his value may be more in the TE2 range.





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