BEAST

LT2 has been the #1 RB in fantasy football for years. And now he is turning the magical 30 years old - the year when running backs start to decline and eventually disappear. The drop is usually precipitous.  See Alexander, Shaun circa 2007. He went from NFL MVP to can’t find a job in 2 years.

Let’s look at the numbers – LT2 has endured more than 2,500 carries in his NFL career, to the tune of 4.4 yards per carry. His per carry average last year was 3.8 and he has been injured the past two playoffs. That is not good. But, even in an off year, he remained a Top 10 RB option in most leagues. Usually this is a guy that we would recommend cutting bait on because many dynasty league owners are very focused on young talent.

So, why would you want to acquire a guy like LT2? Because his value is at an all-time low, which means you will likely pick him up at a discount from a panicked owner. And almost as importantly, he is not going to fall off the 30 year old cliff like Shaun Alexander. Why not? Because LT2, much like Emmitt Smith before him, is a generational talent. He is someone you will tell your kids you owned in a fantasy league. No, he is not going to score 30 TD’s in a season ever again and he probably won’t win another MVP award. But he will give you at least 2 or 3 more years of Top 15 RB numbers.

The Chargers franchised RB Darren Sproles this offseason and asked LT2 to restructure his contract, which should give him even more motivation to prove he is still a franchise back. Plus, Head Coach Norv Turner envisions LT2 getting about 320 carries this year, saying he can be a 1,500 yard rusher and catch 50 passes. Ride LT2 on your dynasty team for the next few years as he goes on to break his idol Emmitt Smith’s rushing record of 18,355 yards.

BUST

Not many NFL running backs have been able to consistently endure the type of offensive utilization shown by LT2 over the last 8 seasons.  During this time LT2 has established himself as a truly rare and elite offensive talent the game has seen.  This is coupled with his astounding 1 missed regular season game over that time period.  The perennial consistency will come to an end in 2009.  LT2 has 3,167 regular season touches (2,657 rush/510 rec.) over his career.  For comparison, I have outlined the similar statistics of the current and relevant NFL running backs of similar age and career experience.

Player	Age - Seasons	Rush	Receptions	Total Touches
Ladainian Tomlinson	30 – 8	2,657	510	3167
Larry Johnson	29 – 6	1,243	139	1,382 (-1,785)
Brian Westbrook	30 – 7	1,247	401	1,648 (-1,519)
Thomas Jones	30 – 9	1,949	279	2,228 (-939)
Clinton Portis	27 - 7	2,052	233	2,285 (-882)
Fred Taylor	33 - 11	2,428	286	2,714 (-453)

Compared to the high level talent of his era, LT2 has the workload of numerous years of workload compared to his peers. It’s hard to imagine that LT2’s success could continue.  The downfall of an NFL running back happens quickly, and only LT2’s toughness and regimented workout program has kept him going this long. 

My dynasty advice for 2009 is to put him on the trade block the moment his value hits its peak in 2009.  This will occur around Week 3 after a strong start of approximately 300 yds and 3 TD’s.   Initiate trade discussions using the Beast analysis from above and early season hype involving LT2’s resurgence for 2009.  It sure was fun to own him though…while it lasted? 

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