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 Beast vs. Bust
Posted by BeastOrBust on Thursday, Aug 12 2010  -  about 1 year ago
::  Back to Featured Columns  ::  Beast vs. Bust Archive
MJD vs. CJ2K vs. ADP: Who is Number One?
With the year that Chris Johnson put up, many casual fantasy leaguers feel that he is the no brainer for the number 1 overall pick in re-draft and also Dynasty leagues. Certainly, no one would question the selection, but Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew make a strong case for that pick as well. The Dynasty Value of our Top-3 Ranked Players are very, very close.  Despite the fact the league has become a "passing league" and the shift of value toward Wide Receivers has grown immensely in the last few seasons, it is still the land of the Running Back when you look at the tip of the Rankings iceberg. 

Outside of these three players, there is a sharp decline in Dynasty value of RB's and the elite WR's must be given strong consideration.  This is not necessarily because any one of the leagues top RB's won't produce at an elite level in any given year (see Frank Gore).  What we see in these three players is a skill set, consistency and versatility that cannot be matched by any other ball carrier.  Each have similar fantasy profiles - they all can carry a full workload, they are durable, the can bust out big plays and the all are receiving threats out of the backfield. In this article, we are not going to try and convince you which RB is the etched-in-stone favorite, however we will provide some facts to think about to allow you to decide who you like the most.  Keep in mind that each of these players were born in 1985 (within six months of each other), so age is not a factor.

Maurice Jones-Drew (4 NFL Seasons - 842 career carries)
MJD is a diminutive workhorse that broke out onto the scene basically out of nowhere in his 2006 Rookie Season.  In fact, the only player to score more TD's (54) than MJD during this time frame is future hall of famer Ladanian Tomlinson.  MJD is an extremely versatile player that has shown he can carry the load as the primary ball carrier (312 carries in 2009) and also serve as a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield (career high 62 receptions in 2008 with an average of 50 receptions per year). He did see a drop-off in production as the season wore on last year, but certainly the end numbers were Beastly. All this while remaining entirely durable over this 4 year career (he missed one game in 2007).  MJD is very small for NFL standards - a fact that steered NFL teams away from the future star in the 2006 NFL Draft.  Having been selected in the 2nd round of that draft by the Jaguars, MJD was passed by all 32 teams in the NFL, a chip that has remained on his shoulder ever since.  He has chosen to wear number 32 as a daily reminder of every team that passed on him.  His low center of gravity has served to keep him healthy, and his limited workload in his first three seasons have left him with little tread on his tires.  MJD remains a TD machine, an experienced pass catcher and a primary ball carrier.  All the traits you would want in a Fantasy Beast.

Chris Johnson (2 NFL Seasons - 609 career carries)
The fastest player at the 2008 NFL Combine burst on the NFL scene in Beastly fashion.  A playmaker from the start, it wasn't long before it was widely recognized that there is fast and then there is Chris Johnson fast.  CJ played in a zone blocking scheme in college and was drafted into a similar type of system in Tennessee.  His vision was better than most gave him credit for and he quickly found a productive role in the Titans offense.  Everyone knew he was something special after his rookie year, but a ridiculous 12 - 100+ yard games in 2009 (including 11 consecutive to end the season) vaulted him into the RB elite. In his second season he became just the sixth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards and also broke Marshall Faulk's record for combined yards in a season.  While what he did is nothing short of impressive, what jumps off the page is his 5.6 ypc average on 358 carries.  Now for a  reason to be somewhat pessimistic.  CJ is not the biggest player on the field at 5-11 and under 200 lbs., and while he can outrun everybody, a big-time workload will take it's toll.  He has only missed one game in his two year career (Week 17 of the 2008 season - for likely reasons) and has proven to be durable.  The 2010 season will tell us a lot about his long term durability however after his first season as a primary ball carrier and receiving over 400 touches.  He could easily move into the #1 overall Dynasty position by seasons end.

Adrian D. Peterson (3 NFL Seasons - 915 career carries)
When was the last time you heard that over 1,300 rushing yards and 18 TD's as a down year.  When it is ADP, that's when.  Kind of ridiculous, but a clear testament of just how Beastly this all purpose power back has become.  There is no questioning his value as the primary ball carrier in Minnesota, all while his receiving skills continue to improve with each passing season. ADP has carried the load in each of his three seasons and the only question about his long term value ties into the wear and tear on his body. He is approaching 1,000 carries and in just his 4th season should easily surpass that. He is built like a tank, but he absorbs huge hits even when he is doling out the pain to defenders. Brett Favre's presence will help to keep his workload in check, but should he retire in the next year or two, ADP could be looking at 350 carries minimum. Another trend to keep an eye on is the fact that his YPC has dropped in each of his three seasons, from 5.6 as a rookie, to 4.8 in 2008 to 4.4 last season. With all that being said, ADP's skill set profiles well as a hall of fame talent assuming health and longevity. He is a Beast and deserves strong consideration with the first pick in a Dynasty Draft.

Where do they rank?
In a time when running backs by committee have become the flavor of the moment, it is amazing what these three running backs have been able to do. When projecting each of them out longterm, each should remain beasts for the next 3-5 years. As we mentioned, these Beasts are really in a class of their own and they really are 1a, 1b and 1c. But someone has to be our number 1, right?

ADP's high number of carries, decreasing YPC and punishing running style are enough of a reason to think twice about him with the first overall pick in a Dynasty Draft, and for that reason he finds himself at 1c in our rankings, 3rd overall. Chris Johnson's 2009 season was ridiculous by all accounts and he has the highest upside of the three, but we want to see what type of numbers he has in store this season. His encore performance will go a long way to determining his Dynasty value, but for right now he fits well as 1b. That leaves our Number 1a Dynasty RB, Maurice Jones-Drew. The consistency, durability through 4 seasons and nose for the goal line have him on top of our list.
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