What's your last memory of Tom Brady? Running around with Gisele all over the world. Okay, what is your last on the field memory of Tom Brady? When he tore his ACL/MCL Week 1 against the Chiefs. Okay before that? He got pummeled by the Giants defense in the Super Bowl...Alright, but before all of that, Tom Brady had just finished one of the most impressive statistical seasons in NFL history - 4,800 yards passing, 50 TD's, 8 INT's and 2 rushing TD's for good measure. But what is his value right now in dynasty leagues?

BEAST

Even before 2007, Tom Brady was a beastly fantasy Quarterback. His record-breaking 2007 season vaulted him into elite status. But then came the horrific knee injury in Week 1 of the 2008 season. Don't let this affect his dynasty stock too much  though, as he remains an elite option at QB for the foreseeable future. All reports right now say he is going to be fully healthy this season. Similar to pocket passers Dan Marino, Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers before him, Brady should bounce back from the ACL/MCL injury and be as good as new. And at 32 years old, you should expect at least 3 more seasons of high level production.

The only real question is which Tom Brady are you getting, the record-breaking 2007 Tom Brady or the pre-2007 Tom Brady? The simple answer is it doesn't matter.  His elite skill set and the New England Patriots system will make him a beast either way. Sure, all Tom Brady owners would love a repeat of 2007, but odds are against any QB doing that EVER. Randy Moss is still one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL and Wes Welker is a slot machine that catches everything thrown his way. Those two guys are the most important part of Brady's success, along with the offensive line that will need to protect their franchise QB and keep him upright this year.

Other than his 2001 (first full season as a starter) and 2008 seasons, Tom Brady has never missed a start, has never passed for less than 3,500 yards, had less than 23 TD's or more than 14 INT's in any season. That is remarkable consistency and consistency wins in fantasy football. The potential exists for another season of huge numbers in New England. Randy Moss and Wes Welker have both come out and said as much in recent days. But even if he doesn't break any records his statistical floor is so high, there is little dynasty risk outside of his health. The Patriots are built to win now and with Tom Brady at the helm of your dynasty team, you will be too.


BUST

I would like to preface this Bust analysis by stating that in no way is an argument being made that Tom Brady has Bust potential.  He's an elite Quarterback that is undoubtedly one of the best to ever play the position.  The purpose of this Bust argument is to look at some of the factors that will affect Bradys Dynasty value moving forward.  As usual BeastOrBust.com pays significant attention to age and upside when detmining a fantasy players Dynasty value.  It just so happens, that for the first time in his illustrious career, an argument can be made that Bradys QB ranking is situated somewhere around the #8-10 range compared to his perennial Top-2 ranking.

Lets take a look:

Tom Brady will be 32 at the start of the 2009 season.  While he still has 4 years of highly productive football left in his career, he's on the wrong side of 30, and his surrounding offensive talent isn't getting any younger either (most specifically Randy Moss).  With no incumbent #1 WR in NE, we expect that as Moss's production decreases with age, so will Bradys. Brady's shredded ACL was a major injury.  As a result, he will be forced to wear a knee brace for the remainder of his career.  Tough situation for an already immobile quarterback. Reports out of NE are saying his knee is a good as ever.  This may be so, but since when have reports out of NE been reliable?  I guess we'll have to wait until the start of the 2009 season to truly find out the health of his knee.

Over his career, Brady has been protected by one of the top offensive lines in the NFL.  Soild protection is a QB's best friend.  The Pats O-Line wasn't as generous to Matt Cassel in the 2008 season. Cassel was sacked a league high 47 times (once per every 10 pass attempts). This will be the same offensive line protecting Brady's bad knee in 2009.  Pay very close attention to his feel for the rush in the pre-season. Tom Brady is a product of a great offensive system. This point, although objective, cannot be disputed. Playoff appearances in 2002, 04, 05, 06 and 07 (Superbowl victories in 2002, 04 and 05) are a testament of the Pats dominance in this decade.  His career averages (3,766 yds - 28 TD's per season) through this period are great, however it is important to note his 2007 record setting season of 50 TD passes has boosted his career seasonal TD average from 25 to 28.  We will let you decide whether Bradys career TD/season average is closer to 25 or 28. 

Lastly, despite his consistency and above average fantasy QB performance, it is important to note he has only posted two seasons with over 4,000+ yardage totals, and only one season with over 28 TD passes. One of those 4,000+ yard passing seasons, and his only seasonal 28+ TD performance is associated with the most prolific offense in NFL history (2007).  While we won't discredit these statistical feats, the likelihood of him reaching even 40 TD's seems unlikely, while 30 TD's would be among his statistical career best.

So what is the point we are trying to make here?  There is currently a misconception between Tom Bradys perceived and actual value.  While his value is overrated (much as it was entering the 2008 season), there are many young QB's out there (See: Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan) poised to post similar statistical numbers moving forward.  QB's in his age bracket (See: Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Carson Palmer) each have posted similar numbers through their careers.

Advice:  As a discerning Dynasty owner, use Tom Bradys perceived value to your advantage.  Prior to the start of the 2009 season, put Tom Brady on the trade block.  Field some offers from fellow owners - see what kind of offers come your way.  Keep him if you're not getting exceptional value.  You will however, likely find owners outbidding each other for the services of the great Tom Brady.  It is not unrealistic to think you could land a young stud QB (see those mentioned above) and some additional value to bolster your roster.  Smart dynasty strategy.

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