Posted by BeastOrBust on Thursday, Sep 29 2011  -  about 8 months ago

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Week 4: Thoughts and Preview

Three weeks in and only the Bills and Lions can keep up with the defending champions Packers with a 3-0 record. The only team or player that has made a bigger surprise splash than those two teams is Cam Newton who came back to earth this past week with a mediocre passing game but did manage to record his first win. Kenny Britt's season is now over with a torn ACL and MCL, and crushes Dynasty owners bad since Britt was easily playing like a Top 5 WR. Look for Nate Washington, Lavelle Hawkins and Damian Williams too get more playing time now will try to fill that giant hole at the WR position. All could sport some Dynasty value if they take advantage. Just like Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who is playing at a QB1/2 level right now and with two come from behind wins in the 4th quarter his Dynasty value is rising especially with the 9 TD passes and 280 yards passing average.  With the heavy emphasis on passing this year in the NFL, WR's have had the most success, so there is a lot to look at this week to see if any other WR will breakout and to see if any RB come back to earth (Chris Johnson). Week 4 is rapidly approaching, let's run through some thoughts for each team.

 

49ers: Despite being 2-1, offensively the 49ers have been lacking (to say the least) through three weeks. Beast TE Vernon Davis did have his breakout game with 114 yards, and with RB Frank Gore struggling to get anything going, he's is the only player with a nice matchup this week. Philly tends to be vulnerable to opposing Tight Ends. Davis is a Beast and has great Dynasty value given his age and upside.

 

Eagles: Mike Vick is hurting right now and the 49er's won't help that cause.  The San Fran defense has not been so nice to opposing QB's so far this season with 7 sacks through 3 games. That could hurt Djax more than Maclin if Vick is under constant pressure. LeSean McCoy is a legit RB1 and even with a tough matchup he is a nice play given his first three games he has had at least one TD and over 100 yards.

 

Lions: Jahvid Best might have some trouble running against that Dallas defense, but with RB's beating them in the passing game he could be a nice Flex play or RB3. Brandon Pettigrew saw his Dynasty stock climb last week but Dallas has stifled tight ends the first three weeks (Fred Davis, Vernon Davis, Dustin Keller). Both have great potential Dynasty Value given they are a key part of the young dynamic Lions offensive plan.

 

Cowboys: It was clear Monday night Romo missed Miles Austin on the field but Felix Jones stepped up.  With a banged up shoulder, Felix still managed to rush for over 100 yards, and should be a nice option for Romo in the passing game too. He is an RB2/3 assuming his shoulder injury does not get worse. It is tough to see any WR's going off since Romo is hurting and no one stepped up last week. The undersized Lions DB's is quite appetizing for Dez Bryant.

 

Vikings: AP wants more carries so expect to see more touches for the Beast this week against the Chiefs. Percy Harvin raises some interest right now since he is the only other Viking who have decent Dynasty value at the moment. 

 

Chiefs:  No Jamaal Charles means Dexter McCluster has a nice Flex value all year, especially this week with the Vikings defense who have a habit of letting the dump pass get to RB's for big gains. Of course Dwayne Bowe is still around and healthy. He scored last week for the first time this season and clearly is Matt Cassel's favorite target. Bowe is a WR2 as of now but has the ability to play like a Beast, as we saw last year when he went on his TD tirade.

 

Bills: The Bills offense have nice threats in fantasy this year - Fred Jackson tearing the backfield up like a RB1 and Ryan Fitzpatrick is airing it out like Peyton Manning. This week they face the Bengals and have another shot to continue the great play. Both have Dynasty value going through the roof and are playing like a #1 at their positions thus far. With Chan Gailey calling the plays, expect their strong play to continue.

 

Bengals: AJ Green had a bump in the road this past week but still has solid value as a WR3. TE Jermaine Gresham could give the Bills problems with his size. It also doesn't hurt that Andy Dalton likes to throw in his direction a lot. These two young players can raise their Dynasty value this week with some solid performances against the Bills D that picked off Tom Brady 4 times last week.

 

Titans:  Kenny Britt showed his Beast upside throughout the first 3 weeks, and even with the injury there is a lot to like about him Dynasty wise. Now Chris Johnson needs to step up. He has a second straight favorable matchup, giving him another chance to redeem himself. Matt Hasselback has resurged this year as well, but he has little Dynasty value given his age. Keep an eye on Lavelle Hawkins and Damian Williams.

 

Browns: Peyton Hillis should be back but might lose some carries to Montario Hardesty who showed some glamour with 14 carries and 67 yards last week. The Titans have only allowed 3 YPC to RB's this year, including Beasts MJD and Ray Rice. Hillis is the safer bet this week as long as he stays involved in the passing game.

 

Redskins: The Redskins passing game could see a jolt this week against the injury riddled Rams. Fred Davis, Santana Moss, Anthony Armstrong, and Jabar Gaffney could have good days given what the Ravens did last week. Tim Hightower and Grossman have really nice matchups this week making them hard to ignore again this week.

 

Rams: Steven Jackson will try to get back in the swing of things this week against a Redskin D that has allowed 5 YPC to opposing RB's through 3 weeks of play. He is the only safe Ram play this week with Sam Bradford still dealing with a finger injury.

Steelers: Big Ben finally got his air assault going this past week and could be in store for a big week also, since the rushing game has been limited given the O-line. That Makes Rashard Mendenhall a RB2 this week, expect Mike Wallace again to see a big play thrown his way and his playing like a WR1 so far this season.

 

Texans:  Matt Schaub and Andre of course are nice bets this week especially since the pass defense of the Steelers has faced the likes of Tavaris Jackson and the Colts QB's the last two weeks, plus Arian Foster is due back to play diminishing Ben Tate's value for this week.

 

Saints:  As Always any Saint is a good play this week facing the Jaguars,  and Marques Colston could return to the lineup if so, Robert Meacehm and Deverey Henderson could see less targets, but they are all nice options this week as well as Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram whose Dynasty value is increasing each week too. Lets not forget about Jimmy Graham who is emerging as a dangerous TE now.

 

Jaguars: MJD is always a good play, and now with Rookie Blaine Gabbert at QB, WR Mike Thomas is getting more looks he got 8 balls thrown his way and can possibly have a nice week against the suspect Saints secondary.

 

Panthers:  Cam Newton faces a decent matchup but the Bears can create turnovers easily as we saw Aaron Rodgers get toyed around with for a couple series.  With the split carries of Williams and Stewart is tough to see who is a better play both give off a Flex type this week against the Bears run defense that has always been good.

 

Bears: The Bears have a much easier matchup this week so Matt Forte and Greg Olsen should be able to have rebound games along with Jay Cutler. All have nice Dynasty Value and could increase if they become more consistent. 

 

Falcons:  Roddy White did break out like we predicted last week and the Seahawks can make it happen again for the never bench WR1. Julio Jones had a huge game too with 6 catches and over 100 yards. Jones is neck and neck in Dynasty value with AJ Green right now, although he may offer more this season. His size poses a problem for Seattle's secondary this week.

 

Seahawks: Sidney Rice showed instant chemistry with Tavaris Jackson, so he is the only Seahawk this week that has a good amount of value this week.

 

Giants: The Giants RB duo did have big games last week thanks to the dump off passes like we said last week, and they can have another big week against Arizona's medicore defense. This goes for Hakeem Nicks, who is on a Beast level already, Manningham, and watch for Victor Cruz who shows some value after a monstor game last week with two huge TD grabs.

 

Cardinals: Kevin Kolb struggled against the average Seattle secondary, but the Giants secondary might not be much better. Still Kolb is a QB2 because of Fitzy who is always a great play. If Beanie Wells can't play again you can expect to see Kolb try to air it out more again too. Alphonso Smith bears watching as long as Beanie is hobbled.

 

Patriots: Even with the loss the Patriots offensive players continue to put up huge numbers. Rookie Stevan Ridley is looking to join the party that Welker, Brady, and Gronkowski are having every Sunday. Ridley saw some good playing time last week and could be in game for more touches this week against the Raiders. He is only a sleeper for now but has the chance to have some nice Dynasty value as the season goes on.

 

Raiders: Run DMC is a Beast, and he showed why by shredding the Jets defense. What makes you think he won't against the Patriots? Denarius Moore is talented obviously and with Jacoby Ford hobbled, Moore will see more looks and option plays as he did last week.

 

Broncos: Tough matchup this week going against the Packers, but Kyle Orton will have to throw most of the afternoon. That makes Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker the only viable options this week. Signs point to Moreno and McGahee having a tough game, the Packers have not gave up more than 40 rushing yards a game this season.

 

Packers: Jermichael Finley is huge and played like a Beast last week. Rodgers clearly likes to go his way and has a nice matchup this week as well. Ryan Grant and James Starks could be Flex plays this week, but keep an eye on Grant's status. He could have the upperhand if he plays, after 17 carries for 92 yards last week.

 

Dolphins: Daniel Thomas is proving to be a nice value so far. He has shown the last two weeks he can perform at a high level and his Dynasty stock as a rookie is rising, but the Chargers will be a tough test for him so he is more of a RB2 this week. Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess are the only other Dolphins who might see any success this week.

 

Chargers: Antonio Gates is hurt again, making Randy McMichael relevant in the deepest of leagues. He could help anyone in the short term because Rivers likes to use his TE's no matter who is lined up. It was great to see Ryan Mathews have a great game with 26 touches and should see about the same with Tolbert battling a calf injury this week.

 

Jets:  This week is going to be defensive battle so the running game might not be existent once again. Santonio Holmes can make a difference as he is proving to be one of Mark Sanchez's favorite targets. Dustin Keller could also sneak up too with the Ravens blitzing, leaving him open.

 

Ravens: Torrey Smith had a great first three catches of his career, but now he goes against a stifling pass defense. Only Anquan Boldin could be a nice play here given his upside and strength. Ray Rice will be heavily involved again and he is a must play each week so far.

 

Colts: Maybe Joseph Addai and Reggie Wayne are viable this week, but signs point to not having a good matchup with Tampa. Curtis Painter is projected to be the starting QB Monday night.

 

Buccaneers: LeGarrette Blount has a nice matchup this week against the Colts run defense. WR Mike Williams can see some nice action too if the Bucs control the possession, which every opponent of the Colts have done really well this season so far.

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